FXUS62 KTAE 301414
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1014 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017
Extensive CU field has developed across most of the area ahead of
a squall line located across MS/LA. Low level wind fields have
increased substantially with breezy conditions expected today.
Made a few tweaks to sky to increase clouds based on satellite,
increase winds based on current conditions, and add a slight
chance of rain and isolated TStorms across SE AL and SW GA.
No changes to temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 80s and
isolated areas around 90 degrees.
.PREV DISCUSSION [644 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
One more quiet weather day is ahead for the region, as deep layer
high pressure continues to have an influence across the region. A
powerful upper level low to the west, currently located over the
TX/OK Panhandles, will continue to move east northeastward through
the day and begin to really break down the ridge in place across
the region later this afternoon and this evening. The approaching
system will yield increasing winds across the region later this
morning, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and occasional gusts
up to 25 mph expected by this afternoon. Otherwise, partly to
mostly cloudy skies will linger through the day, inhibiting
daytime heating to an extent. Highs will range from the mid to
upper 80s west and upper 80s to low 90s across eastern portions of
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
For tonight into early Monday, there still remains a marginal risk
of severe weather, mainly across southeast Alabama and the Florida
panhandle. A squall line will be approaching the area tonight.
Guidance indicates a small area of unstable air will persist ahead
of it into the far western portions of our area with sufficient
wind shear to maintain the marginal risk of mainly damaging
winds. The squall line is expected to continue gradually weakening
as it moves eastward with the severe weather threat decreasing
farther to the east. Drier and cooler conditions will move into
the area behind the front on Monday night with overnight lows
dipping into the mid to upper 50s across most of the area except
the southeast big bend, although that's just getting back to
average for this time of year. Afternoon highs on Tuesday are
expected to be mostly in the mid 80s.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
Mainly dry conditions are expected on Wednesday. The GFS and the
ECMWF have come into better agreement on the 00z cycle that
Thursday will be the wet day across the area as another upper
level trough and cold front affect the southeast states. There
will likely be sufficient instability and shear for organized
convection, and a chance of severe weather can't be ruled out.
Both models move the system eastward for Friday and show dry
weather for next weekend, at least for this cycle, although there
has been some flip-flopping from run to run with this system. Near
average temperatures are expected behind the system.
.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...
VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites at this hour, with the
exception of VLD. Expect CIGS to lift there over the next few
hours. Gusty southeasterly winds are expected by late morning,
with speeds generally from 15 to 20kts and occasional gusts to
Moderate to strong southeast to south winds will continue across
the coastal waters through Monday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Advisory conditions are expected at times with the worst
conditions west of Apalachicola. This will lead to high surf,
strong rip currents, and slightly above-normal tides. Much lower
winds and seas are expected by mid-week with some increase
expected by the end of the week.
Twenty foot winds are expected to exceed 15mph out of the south
across the region by late morning and remain elevated through this
evening. Transport winds will also be elevated, yielding high
dispersion values across much of the region from late morning
through the afternoon hours. However, RH's will remain above
critical thresholds, precluding red flag conditions.
Chances for wetting rains will increase late tonight through Monday.
Dry conditions will resume on Tuesday, with RH's potentially
approaching critically low thresholds once again.
Rainfall amounts will generally be in the 0.50 to 1 inch range
from Tallahassee north and westward with lesser amounts to the
south and east. Another system is likely on Thursday with some
heavier totals possible. However, the risk of river flooding is
low given the recent dry conditions and relatively low river
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 86 71 78 57 86 / 0 20 70 20 10
Panama City 85 73 74 61 81 / 10 60 80 10 10
Dothan 87 69 74 54 85 / 20 70 80 10 0
Albany 90 71 77 54 83 / 10 30 80 20 10
Valdosta 91 71 82 58 85 / 20 20 60 50 10
Cross City 91 71 83 65 84 / 10 10 20 40 20
Apalachicola 81 73 76 62 82 / 0 30 50 20 10
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Monday
afternoon for Coastal Franklin-Inland Gulf.
High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
High Surf Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for South Walton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Apalachee
Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for Coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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