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FXUS62 KTAE 060518
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
118 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

While TAFs are VFR initially, cigs will decrease through the day
today to MVFR with some vsby restrictions also possible. By the
afternoon, rain will spread northward across the sites.
Instability is limited so only a mention of showers in the TAFs
for now, though an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [919 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through tonight]...
Afternoon convection should diminish this evening for much of the
area, as large scale forcing is initially rather weak. After
midnight, showers and thunderstorms associated with the outer
reaches of Cristobal may begin to move into the coastal waters and
approach the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Sunday night]...
Tropical Storm Cristobal will move north through the central Gulf
on Saturday. However, the system will be very asymmetric, with a
large area of showers and thunderstorms well to the northeast of
the system. With easterly flow in place at the surface tomorrow,
isentropic lift will increase through the day as the southeasterly
and southerly flow associated with Cristobal approaches the area.
This will lead to an increase in showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day, especially across Florida. Guidance has been
fairly consistent in bringing a large band of heavy rain into the
Big Bend and Panhandle sometime from Saturday evening into early
Sunday. This band will likely bring the heaviest rainfall into the
area, largely focused south of I-10. This will also bring the
strongest winds to the marine areas as well, with possible gusts
to tropical storm force offshore. At this time, the stronger winds
are not expected onshore. However, with the strong flow over the
waters, some storm surge flooding is expected along the Big Bend
coast. While guidance has trended downward from yesterday, there
is still the potential for 2 to 4 feet of inundation, especially
near the top of Apalachee Bay. This is covered by the Storm Surge
Watch.

Guidance generally weakens this primary band once it moves onshore
during the day on Sunday, with coverage of rain gradually
diminishing. Rainfall totals through the event will vary sharply
from south to north, from 3 to 5 inches near the coast to less
than 1 inch in parts of SE Alabama and SW Georgia. In addition,
localized higher amounts are possible south of I-10, where Flash
Flooding cannot be ruled out.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...
Even as Cristobal moves quickly to the north and east next week,
the area is expected to remain in a fairly moist and tropical
airmass. This will keep PoPs at or above typical summertime
levels. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the
lower 70s.


.MARINE...
Winds and seas will begin to increase tonight as Tropical Storm
Cristobal moves into the central Gulf of Mexico. Expect poor
marine conditions to last into Monday, with the worst weather
expected late Saturday into Sunday.


.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns through early next week.


.HYDROLOGY...
See short term discussion above for rain and surge impacts
associated with Cristobal. In short, isolated flash flooding will
be possible along the north Florida coast on Sunday, with minor to
moderate level coastal flooding expected as well.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee 84 70 84 73 89 / 60 60 70 50 50
Panama City 85 73 85 76 87 / 60 70 80 70 50
Dothan 85 70 83 72 87 / 40 40 50 50 60
Albany 87 71 85 73 90 / 40 30 40 40 50
Valdosta 85 69 84 72 90 / 60 50 50 40 50
Cross City 82 70 85 73 90 / 80 70 70 50 50
Apalachicola 81 74 83 76 85 / 80 80 80 60 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf.

High Surf Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 8
AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

High Surf Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf.

High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday
evening for South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to
11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Sunday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal
Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20
Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning to 11
PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Sunday for Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Camp
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