FXUS62 KTAE 222323
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
723 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018
.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...
Diurnal convection is waning and don't plan any mention of precip
in the TAFs in the near term. Latest mesoscale models suggest a
band of convection could affect the Gulf waters later tngt psbly
getting close to ECP. Will carry a VCTS there to account.
Otherwise the general trend from model guidance is for moisture
to increase across the area tmrw and for there to be slightly
better coverage convection. Will introduce VCTS at DHN, TLH and
ECP where moisture is best and sea breeze should enhance potential.
.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed along the
Panhandle coast and this should be the focus for convection for
much of the afternoon. While a few showers and thunderstorms are
possible across the Big Bend, so far the east coast seabreeze
that would bring those storms has been weak and thus activity
there may be more limited than initially thought. Any lingering
convection this evening should diminish by 8-10pm. With an upper
level low across the eastern Gulf tonight, expect additional
activity over the marine area tonight (PoPs in the scattered
range), in addition to isolated showers and thunderstorms along
the coast. Lows will continue to remain above average with lows in
the low lower 70s.
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
The area will be increasingly under the influence of a deep layer
ridge over the subtropical Atlantic as a mid-level low just to our
south slowly translates westward across the Gulf of Mexico. This
pattern will favor above average heights with the proximity of the
ridge and Precipitable Water values slightly above normal, around
1.8 inches. Given the absence of larger scale forcing, seabreeze
driven showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and
evening. PoPs on both Sunday and Monday range from around 30 pct in
the FL Big Bend into southwest GA to 40-50 pct elsewhere. There is
the potential for a few strong thunderstorms, especially on Monday,
with model soundings indicative of mid-level lapse rates approaching
6.5 C/km and Mixed Layer CAPE around 1.5k J/kg. The low-level
thermal profile will be supportive of high temperatures in the low
to mid-90s away from the Gulf coast, and low temperatures in the
mid-70s, which is several degrees above normal.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
With the approach of a long wave trough moving into the Mississippi
Valley, the deep layer flow will veer to the southwest on Wednesday.
This will transport deeper moisture into much of the region, leading
to greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs 30-50 pct
from the western Big Bend into southeast AL on Tuesday, increasing
40-60 pct across the entire area on Wednesday. As a cold front
approaches from the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, greater synoptic
scale forcing will arrive leading to continued coverage of showers
and thunderstorms, especially northwest of the FL Big Bend, with
PoPs again ranging 40-60 pct. Given the mid-level flow becoming
increasingly parallel to the front, it's unlikely to make much
southward progress into the region, before the subtropical ridge
reasserts control early next weekend, leading to renewed easterly
flow. Temperature-wise, continued above average through the first
week of fall, with highs in the low to mid-90s, and lows in the low
Easterly winds tonight and Sunday will shift to the south for
Wednesday and Thursday, then back to the east late this week,
generally around 10 knots or less through the period. Seas 1
to 2 feet tonight through Monday increasing 2 to 3 feet for
Monday Night through Thursday. Winds and seas higher in the
vicinity of thunderstorms.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through the end
of the weekend. Chances for wetting rains from scattered showers
and storms will exist each afternoon.
The average total rainfall amounts over the next week are expected
to range from less than 1 inch in southwest GA to around 1.5 inches
near the western FL panhandle coast. This distribution is close to
long term averages, except southwest GA, where it is below normal.
In addition, localized higher amounts are likely in heavier showers
and thunderstorms. Overall, this should not present an issue for
rivers and streams, which are expected to remain below action stage
through the period.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 91 74 91 74 / 20 40 30 30 30
Panama City 73 89 75 88 75 / 20 50 40 60 30
Dothan 69 90 71 88 72 / 10 40 20 50 30
Albany 71 91 72 91 73 / 0 30 20 40 30
Valdosta 71 90 72 91 72 / 20 40 20 40 20
Cross City 72 92 73 93 73 / 30 40 30 40 20
Apalachicola 75 87 76 87 76 / 40 50 50 50 40
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