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FXUS62 KTAE 240101
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
901 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.UPDATE...

All shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished at this hour,
with the exception of light showers across the Suwannee Valley.
Expect this activity to clear this area over the next one to two
hours. As mentioned in the afternoon discussion, the key to shower
and storm development overnight will depend on the location of a
MCV currently located over central Georgia. Hi-res guidance has
been consistent through the afternoon in this feature slowly
drifting southeastward through the overnight hours. Confidence is
higher at this hour in any robust convection that results from
forcing from this feature will be located across central Georgia,
north of the CWA. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out across
south central Georgia during the late overnight hours, however.

Given light winds and wet soils across the region from this
afternoon's rainfall, patchy fog will be possible late tonight.
Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain in the low to mid 70s
overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [744 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Still watching with interest the MCV located across central Georgia.
This is currently forecast to stay just north of our forecast area
overnight. Heavy rainfall is a threat with this feature, so we'll
continue to keep an eye on it in case it ends up further south than
expected. Right now, it looks like more of a potential issue just
north of our area. For us, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon will gradually diminish this evening
with the loss of diurnal heating. Overnight temperatures are
expected to be mainly in the 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A ridge of high pressure remains to our east, with an upper level
trough still situated over the Gulf of Mexico. Deep layer southerly
flow continues to bring plenty of moisture to the area and diurnal
heating will continue to bring us enough instability for scattered
to numerous showers to develop the next few days and, in some cases,
linger into the evening hours. Temperatures will peak in the mid-
upper 80s each afternoon and dip into the upper 60s to low 70s at
night.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Generally wet conditions are expected to continue into the long
term. This morning's NHC 5-Day Outlook suggests a 60% chance of
formation for the potentially sub-tropical/tropical system currently
in the Caribbean. Model guidance is still in disagreement on the
track of this system. Regardless of how the system evolves,
unsettled conditions will persist throughout the period with
expected rainfall totals around 5-7 inches. High temperatures will
stay in the 80s and lows will stay in the lower 70s.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...

Diminishing TSRA/SHRA activity this evening as most terminals are
now back up to VFR/MVFR, KVLD lingering in IFR/MVFR a bit longer
as storms push east. A few SHRA/TSRA may linger near terminals
past sunset, though patchy fog will be the more likely cause of
reduced visibilities overnight. Conditions will improve quickly
after sunrise, with another round of SHRA/TSRA possible tomorrow.


.MARINE...

Winds and seas will remain light through Friday. As the weekend gets
started and a disturbance moves into the Gulf, winds and seas are
likely to increase. Advisory conditions could begin as early as
Saturday with seas building up to 8 feet. Rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are likely through the period.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A wet pattern will continue into next week. No fire weather concerns
at this time.


.HYDROLOGY...

Most of the area has received about 2-5" over the last week and our
wet pattern will continue for the next several days. Additional
accumulations of 3-7" of rain are expected to pile up over the next
week. This will cause an increasing flooding threat as we head into
the weekend. In regards to river flooding, the rivers have been able
to handle the rain so far and only a few sites are in action stage
or forecast to reach action stage. With additional rainfall over the
next week though, this will have to be monitored closely. Besides
the rivers, localized minor flooding will be possible the next few
days with the flash flood risk increasing for this weekend.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee 71 88 69 87 71 / 20 60 30 60 40
Panama City 74 83 72 83 73 / 10 50 40 50 40
Dothan 71 86 69 87 70 / 20 70 50 70 60
Albany 71 85 69 86 70 / 40 70 60 70 50
Valdosta 70 88 68 86 69 / 40 60 60 70 50
Cross City 70 88 68 85 70 / 10 60 40 60 50
Apalachicola 73 83 70 84 73 / 10 30 30 30 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Thursday for
Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Pullin
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Nguyen/Skeen
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Nguyen
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