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FXUS62 KTAE 231819
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
219 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Fairly light WNW flow across the region today will keep rain chances
on the low side through the evening hours. Any showers/storms that
develop this afternoon are expected to dissipate by sunset. Expect
mostly clear skies overnight with low temperatures generally in the
lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

Weak frontal boundary will sag into the area Thursday and move
slowly through the area through Thursday night. The frontal
boundary will provide the best focus for rainfall across the
central and southern portions of the area. Expect around a 50%
chance in these areas with decreasing chances across SE Alabama
and portions of SW Georgia. The front appears to be just south of
our coastal waters Friday with the better chances for rainfall
across the southern half (mainly Florida counties) of the area. No
real change in airmass behind the front so expect highs in the
lower 90s each day and lows Thursday night in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Again, model variability between the solutions (and run to run
variability) pertaining to the eventual evolution to what is now
(again) TD Harvey may or may not have an impact on our weather and
forecast. Due to this, I have favored a persistence forecast from
the previous shifts. Therefore, will continue typical afternoon
and evening showers and storms at a 30-50% chance each day. Highs
will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs and lows in the
70s. This is a low confidence forecast with high variability
depending on the eventual track of Harvey. Otherwise, the area
will remain in light WNW mid level flow with a NW to NE surface
wind.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon/evening.
Sct TSRA are starting to develop NW of DHN and may impact that
terminal through this afternoon. Elsewhere, coverage is expected
to be too isolated to include in the TAFs. VFR overnight and into
Thursday except at VLD where a brief MVFR restriction before
sunrise is possible.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will prevail through Saturday. Beginning
Saturday night, moderate winds and seas are expected as high
pressure across the northeast Gulf interacts with low pressure in
the western Gulf. Showers and storms can be expected each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next few
days. Localized ponding of water is possible in poor drainage
areas with the heaviest rainfall, but widespread flooding is not
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee 75 93 75 93 75 / 10 50 30 40 40
Panama City 78 90 77 90 77 / 10 30 30 40 40
Dothan 74 92 72 91 73 / 10 40 20 40 40
Albany 74 93 73 92 74 / 10 40 20 40 30
Valdosta 74 93 73 92 74 / 20 50 30 40 30
Cross City 75 92 74 93 75 / 10 40 30 30 40
Apalachicola 77 90 77 90 77 / 10 30 20 30 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Scholl
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