FXUS62 KTAE 200135
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
935 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Surface analysis from 00 UTC shows an area of high pressure over
Eastern Tennessee, about near Knoxville. Light to occasionally
moderate NE-E flow was occurring over our region where the
pressure gradient is still relatively tight over the NE Gulf. Data
since 00z shows winds have become calm across our northern tier
zones in Srn GA, but still in the 5-7 kt range along the GA/FL
border and stronger still over the marine area.
The evening 00 UTC sounding continued to show a relatively dry
troposphere below 500 mb with moistening further up associated
with some thin cirrus arriving from the west.
With the high still off to our north and the gradient not
particularly relaxed across the Florida zones, expect the low
temperatures to be similar to or a little warmer than last night,
in the low to mid 60s in Florida and into the mid to upper 50s in
Srn GA/AL. Updated the forecast this evening to reflect these
.PREV DISCUSSION [751 PM EDT]...
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Deep layer ridging is forecast to hold in place across the
Southeastern States, with low-level easterly flow continuing.
Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs mid 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A few showers are possible Friday
afternoon over the far southeastern Big Bend in the easterly flow.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...
A vigorous upper trough will dig into the Lower Mississippi
Valley on Sunday, with the southern tail becoming cut off by
Monday. The guidance still differs on the details, with the 12Z
ECMWF showing a bit more of a negative tilt and more vigorous
surface cyclogenesis than the GFS. These details will help to
determine the overall threat of severe storms on Monday. However,
there does appear be at least a low-end threat of strong to
severe storms during the day. Regardless of the severe threat,
showers and thunderstorms are expected from late Sunday through
Monday ahead of the associated cold front. Behind the front, a
much cooler airmass will push into the region bringing fall-like
conditions with it.
[Through 00z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Light winds overnight are expected to become
easterly around 10 knots or less on Friday.
Easterly winds will remain elevated through the weekend, with
nocturnal surges pushing conditions to near Small Craft Advisory
levels each night.
Aside from high dispersion indices in the Florida Big Bend on Friday
afternoon, there are no fire weather concerns through the next
River levels remain fairly low at this time. Rain totals over the
next week are forecast to be around one inch as a cold front moves
through early next week. No flooding concerns.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 62 84 64 86 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 65 83 66 84 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 55 82 59 84 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
Albany 53 82 59 83 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 60 83 62 84 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cross City 67 85 65 86 68 / 0 20 0 10 10
Apalachicola 67 83 68 83 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
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