FXUS62 KTAE 191938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
338 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A weak surface boundary stretched across central Alabama and Georgia
will remain near the CWA through tonight. The more active pattern
will continue across the CWA this afternoon and evening with
numerous showers and thunderstorms. While convection over the land
areas will diminish this evening/tonight, storms will re-focus
across the marine area for the second half of tonight. The main
threat this afternoon continues to remain localized flooding with
isolated heavy rain/slow moving storms. Lows tonight will drop into
the mid 70s with the upper 70s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The weak boundary draped across our area will stretch eastward
and finally begin to get pulled to the south Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough centered over the Great Lakes
will deepen into the southeast this weekend as a shortwave trough
digs into it. This will help develop a cold front across the
Tennessee Valley on Friday that will push southeastward through
the weekend.

PW values will be mostly around 2 or more inches Friday and
Saturday with a brief period of drier air in southwest GA between
frontal systems. Although 0-6 km shear will be around 10 kts through
Friday, wind shear will increase to 20-30 kts in the afternoon and
evening hours. Instability will sharply rise as well with the
approach of the second system with MCAPE in the afternoon and
evening reaching 2500-3500 J/kg in some areas. This will mean an
increased likelihood of more organized storms and the potential for
severe weather. The main threat would be damaging wind gusts, but
with 0-1 km shear of 10-15 kts in this very unstable environment, a
tornado can't be ruled out. Heavy rain will also pose a threat for
localized flooding both Friday and Saturday.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The front will continue to push through the area through Monday, but
as the upper level low driving it becomes cut off, the system will
stall out over the area by Monday evening and drift west-
southwestward through the end of the week. This should bring rounds
of on-again,off-again rainfall and isolated thunderstorms through
the end of next week. PW across the area will stay around 2 inches
through the period, so periods of heavier rainfall will continue to
be a concern, especially those that receive higher totals this


.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

Convection is expected around/at the TAF sites through the afternoon
and into the evening but should diminish by 00-01z.
Gusty winds of 20-30kts with brief vsby restrictions are possible.
IFR cigs are possible in the morning, particularly at VLD to DHN
to VLD.



West and southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots along with seas of
2 to 3 feet expected through the beginning of the weekend. A
frontal system moves into the region Saturday and will begin to
increase winds and seas. Advisory level conditions are possible on
Sunday with wind around 20 to 25 knots and seas possibly
up to 8 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
next 7 days with the greatest coverage in the overnight hours.



Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the
next several days.



Widespread flooding is not expected the next few days, but a very
moist airmass in place through the forecast period will contribute
to localized flooding risks under any training or slow moving
thunderstorms. Rises to minor flood stage are not expected.



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee 74 90 73 95 74 / 40 70 20 40 40
Panama City 77 90 78 91 80 / 40 50 10 30 40
Dothan 74 92 74 93 74 / 50 40 10 50 50
Albany 74 91 75 93 75 / 70 50 20 60 50
Valdosta 74 89 73 93 74 / 40 70 20 40 40
Cross City 75 86 74 90 76 / 60 70 40 50 30
Apalachicola 77 88 77 91 79 / 50 60 20 30 40


FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
for Coastal Gulf.



LONG TERM...Nguyen
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