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FXUS62 KTAE 240752
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
352 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Mid level ridging across the southeast states will slowly shift
eastward as an upper low moves into the southern Plains. Surface
ridging, featuring the surface high center in the western Atlantic
and east to southeast wind flow across our area, will remain in
control. Low level moisture will begin to dry out today but high
level moisture from the Pacific associated with the southern Plains
trough will move into the area beginning later this morning. A mix
of clouds and sun is expected today with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

In the upper levels a cut-off low over the Great Plains will move
over IL/MO by Saturday evening. A trough will approach the region
in the late afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. At the
surface a low will be over IL/MO on Saturday. The associated cold
front will not make it this far south. The best chance for rain
will be late afternoon and evening on Saturday as the trough
approaches. POPs up to 45 percent are forecast in western portions
of the region in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Thunderstorms are possible with moderate 0-6km shear and dew
points in the lower 60s. CAPE will be moderate in the afternoon
and low after sunset. A few strong to severe storms can't be ruled
out in western parts of the region. SPC has a marginal risk for
severe storms west of a line from Panama City to Dothan. Lows will
be in the mid to upper 50s. Highs will be in the upper 70s and
lower 80s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

In the upper levels another trough will move through on Monday
evening. Then a ridge will be over the Southeast for a few days.
At the surface a weak pressure gradient will be in place until the
next low approaches on Thursday night. The best chances for rain
will be Monday evening with POPs up to 30 percent and Thursday
night. Lows will be in the 50s and highs will be in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...

MVFR-VFR clouds continue to develop and move across the area.
Mainly VFR through the period with tempo MVFR cigs/vsbys at
DHN/ABY/VLD through mid morning. VFR afterwards. East to east-
southeast winds will rule this period with a few gusts possible
Friday up to 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong easterly winds will continue through this afternoon. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 5pm EDT for most of
the coastal waters. Winds will remain elevated through Saturday
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


High dispersions values above 75 possible this afternoon across the
Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, and southeast Alabama.

High pressure will remain in control today but will shift eastward
as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Rain chances will
increase from west to east Saturday but with rainfall remaining
across SE Alabama and Florida panhandle. Locations east of this area
can expect possible rainfall beginning Saturday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are well below action levels. Rain totals are
forecast to be less than half an inch over the next seven days. No
flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee 80 57 78 58 80 / 0 0 10 20 20
Panama City 75 63 73 64 74 / 0 0 30 30 20
Dothan 79 58 78 60 79 / 0 0 30 40 30
Albany 79 57 80 60 81 / 0 0 20 20 30
Valdosta 79 56 80 59 81 / 0 0 10 20 20
Cross City 78 55 81 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 74 62 73 63 74 / 0 0 10 20 20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...McDermott
LONG TERM...McDermott
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...McDermott
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...McDermott
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