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FXUS62 KTAE 151924
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
324 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 12z KTAE sounding showed a fairly strong inversion around 750
mb. This, combined with a precipitable water value of only 1.21
inches, is expected to keep convective coverage isolated for the
remainder of this afternoon with PoPs at 20 percent or less.
Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the area.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A series of shortwaves will disrupt our currently zonal pattern
aloft as we head into the new week. Meanwhile, the low level
ridging in place will shift southeastward slightly, bringing a
steady return flow of moisture to the area. PW values will climb
back around 1.5" Sunday, and back up to around 2" Monday
afternoon. On Sunday, scattered seabreeze thunderstorms will be
mostly focused in the FL Big Bend and in south central Georgia,
but storms are expected to be seen across more of the forecast
area Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal, with
highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The unsettled pattern aloft will continue with a parade of
shortwaves over the southeastern U.S. At the lower levels, we'll
remain on the northwestern edge of a ridge of high pressure,
maintaining moderate low level flow from the southwest. PW values
are expected to hold steady around 1.5" through the week. This will
be favorable for active seabreeze days this week with numerous
storms across the area in the afternoons through at least Thursday.
Things may quiet down slightly as we head into the weekend, when
upper level ridging could nudge over the area. Temperatures will
remain near normal through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

VFR conditions with relatively light winds will prevail through
most of tonight. After 09z, ceiling and visibility restrictions
are possible at VLD, ECP, and DHN with a quick return to VFR again
after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...

Chances for offshore thunderstorms will increase over the next few
days and remain high through much of the work week. Winds and seas
are expected to remain low outside of thunderstorms through
Wednesday. Around Wednesday night, wind speeds will increase to 15
to 20 knots and seas will build to 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum relative humidity along with rain chances increase over the
next few days. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Our seabreeze pattern will become more active, increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms for next week. However widespread
rainfall accumulations are expected to remain low- around one to two
inches. Localized flooding will be possible in areas that see slower
storms with higher rainfall rates, but no widespread flooding issues
are anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee 71 92 72 90 72 / 10 30 10 40 10
Panama City 74 88 74 87 75 / 0 10 10 20 10
Dothan 70 92 71 92 73 / 0 10 10 30 10
Albany 71 92 72 91 73 / 0 10 10 40 20
Valdosta 71 92 72 91 72 / 10 30 20 50 30
Cross City 71 89 71 88 72 / 20 50 30 40 30
Apalachicola 74 87 74 86 76 / 10 20 10 30 10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Nguyen
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Nguyen
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