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FXUS62 KTBW 161846
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
146 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather to end the weekend and start the work week with quasi-
zonal flow aloft over the E Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Slightly
cooler weak surface high pressure to build into and move through the
region. Temps to run slightly below seasonal averages tonight
through Monday night then warming and moderating conditions Tuesday.

Models in good agreement with next southern stream storm system mid
to late week. Upper low currently over the Baja already spreading
upper cloud shield into the W Gulf. The low moves eastward and comes
in phase with northern stream trough to deepen forming longwave
trough thru the Plains states Wednesday. The associated surface low
pressure forms and moves along the Gulf Coast with increasing
southerly low level flow and moisture moving from the N Carib over S
FL to start rain chances into the local area Wed afternoon through
Thursday ahead of and along cold front. Upper energy to wrap over
the area for rounds of showers and thunderstorms with this system.
Lingering residual energy and moisture to keep light rain showers
for Friday as well.

Drier and cooler high pressure to build into the region next weekend.

Wave action along area beaches is subsiding this afternoon and will
allow high surf advisory to expire but rip current risk will linger
into early Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions with mix of SCT locally BKN stratus and low
level cu clouds through this afternoon lifting tonight. May again
see some localized field fog at usual fog prone terminals towards
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Large long period swells subsiding this afternoon to allow SCA to
expire. Weak pressure gradient to keep generally light winds
and slight seas later Monday into mid week. Next complex
storm system to move through the region Thursday into Saturday
with breezy winds to elevate choppy seas creating hazardous
marine conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Recent rainfall, RHs above critical levels and fairly light winds to
prevent any fire weather concerns. Some patchy shallow fog will be
possible overnights especially in typical fog prone areas.
Also light winds will produce poor disperion values for
some areas Monday and Tuesday.



&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 50 62 51 69 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 54 67 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 49 65 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 54 63 52 68 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 46 62 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 54 62 53 68 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal
Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close
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