FXUS62 KTBW 240025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
725 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

00Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis show the Florida
peninsula continues to reside under unseasonably strong
mid/upper level ridging...resulting in day after day of
near-record to record heat across the region.

The forecast through the weekend does not change much as
this ridge holds firm...and temperatures remain well above
normal. Will see the development of a sea-breeze each
afternoon that will make slow progress inland. A few
isolated and brief showers are not impossible along this
boundary by late afternoon/early evening...but with the
degree of dry air aloft, any updrafts will be fighting a
mostly loosing battle above 10KFT.

When the synoptic pattern does not change, usually the
forecast does not change a whole lot either, and this is
the case for the next few days. More of the same, and likely
more record highs.


.AVIATION (24/00Z through 25/00Z)...
VFR conditions will prevail at west-central and SW Florida
TAF sites through the evening and much of the overnight.
Coastal TAF sites have flipped to onshore winds with the
passage of the sea-breeze, but will see lighter winds come
back around to the east by later this evening. Patchy and
shallow fog may briefly drop visibility into MVFR categories
around dawn for KLAL/KPGD/KRSW, but significant aviation
restrictions are not anticipated, and any early morning fog
will lift quickly. VFR conditions under a developing sct-bkn
cumulus field will then prevail for the daylight hours
Saturday. Just a slight chance of a late afternoon shower
along yet another inland propagating sea-breeze.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 67 83 68 83 / 10 20 20 0
FMY 66 84 66 85 / 10 20 10 10
GIF 64 85 66 86 / 0 10 20 10
SRQ 67 81 67 80 / 10 10 20 0
BKV 63 85 64 85 / 10 20 20 0
SPG 68 83 68 83 / 10 10 20 0


Gulf waters...None.



Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page