FXUS62 KTBW 111838
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
138 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

...TORNADO WATCH FOR MOST OF CENTRAL WESTERN FLORIDA UNTIL 6 PM THIS
EVENING...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ALIGNED
ACROSS THE GULF REGION...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE FL
PENINSULA...AND THE MID LVL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES THE SCENARIO FOR CONTINUING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALL COUNTIES BUT CHARLOTTE
AND LEE AS THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY.

LATEST NAM/WRF ARE GOING FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN POPS AND COVERAGE. GFS
RELAXES A BIT LATER THIS EVENING...THEN BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RACING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL ON FRIDAY. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY HIGH END POPS WITH 60-70 PERCENT TONIGHT...70-80 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY THEN QUICKLY DECREASING FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EARLY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS IN PREVIOUS OCCASIONS. FRIDAY
WILL SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. FOR SATURDAY LOWS COOL OFF A BIT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP BRIEFLY
BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND
GULF OF MEXICO DURING MIDWEEK. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THURSDAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND SEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THEN DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. ON THURSDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY
WITH SOME LOCAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SOME FOG CONTINUING
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 7 PM
THIS EVENING AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS WILL KEEP
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS BEGIN RELAXING LATER TONIGHT
...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY AS
A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN NEAR HAZARDOUS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND FINALLY SUBSIDING TO BELOW HIGHLIGHT
CRITERIA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 66 73 58 72 / 70 80 30 10
FMY 69 77 61 77 / 70 80 40 10
GIF 68 75 56 76 / 70 80 30 10
SRQ 67 73 58 73 / 70 80 30 10
BKV 65 74 50 73 / 60 70 20 10
SPG 67 73 60 72 / 70 80 30 10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-
PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR CITRUS-
DESOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-MANATEE-
PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT
20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...22/REYNES
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/CLOSE


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