FXUS62 KTBW 050741
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
241 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH A SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA CONTINUES TO SUPPLY PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
IMPACT BOTH OUR RAIN CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
IF CLOUDINESS IS THICK ENOUGH TO CURTAIL HEATING...WE PROBABLY
WOULD NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S AND WOULD HAVE VERY FEW SHOWERS IF
ANY TO DEAL WITH. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A THINNER CLOUD SHIELD
THAT ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEA BREEZES ALONG WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE GFS DECOUPLES THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE HANGING BACK BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
WHILE THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OPEN UP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY MONDAY. SEA BREEZES COULD AGAIN BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO JUST CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DURING THE MIDWEEK WITH A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A STRONG TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER
WESTERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY. LEADING ENERGY WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
HELP SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND PUSH RAIN INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MEX POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE BY BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL HANG IN PLACE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS A POWERFUL LONGWAVE
TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE IN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION FLOW
ACROSS FLORIDA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE EXTENDED EACH DAY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND APPROACHING STRONG TROUGH. CURRENT GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTS POSSIBLY MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BY
SATURDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CAUSING THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO
SLOW OR STALL OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT MAKE A POSSIBLE INTRUSION
BY DAY 7 AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 12Z SUN. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY 15Z WITH JUST SCT
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN VFR RANGE. DEVELOPING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA BY 20Z
BUT COVERAGE OF TSRA TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
PRECIP ENDING BY 03Z AND REMAINING VFR.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS NEAR
TH COAST EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO BRING WINDS BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE MAY SEE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 65 80 64 / 30 20 30 10
FMY 81 65 83 65 / 30 20 30 10
GIF 81 63 81 61 / 30 20 30 10
SRQ 79 63 79 63 / 30 20 30 10
BKV 81 58 81 58 / 30 20 30 10
SPG 78 66 78 64 / 30 20 30 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...63/JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...35/JOHNSON
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