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FXUS62 KTBW 190807
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
407 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Broad surface high pressure from the New England states extends
southwest across northern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This
will help filter in drier air over the region and keep a northeast
wind flow to close out the week and into the weekend. Rain
chances will be lower than the past several days with only 10-30
percent POPs through Saturday. The highest rain chances will be on
Saturday afternoon as a trough of low pressure moves westward
through the Florida Straits. This will produce 30-50 percent POPs
across southwest Florida. The broad high pressure along the
eastern seaboard shifts southward starting Sunday keeping pleasant
weather across the area through the middle of next week.
Temperatures will be around average through the period with
daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period. The only aviation
concern will be gusty winds on Thursday afternoon. Winds will
increase northeast at around 10 knots with gusts near 20 knots
possible during the afternoon. No other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Interaction between high pressure extending southwest along the
eastern seaboard and a trough of low pressure east of Hispaniola is
producing a tight pressure gradient resulting in increasing
northeasterly winds over the gulf coast waters. This has warranted
the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the gulf coast waters
beginning Thursday evening and continuing until Sunday morning.
Winds will decrease to around 10-15 knots on Sunday and continuing
through next week. No other marine impacts are expected through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure to the northeast will help filter in some drier air
over the area for the next several days, but remaining above any
fire weather threshold. Rain chances will be minimal to close out
the week and into the weekend. The only fire weather concern will be
with gusty northeast winds creating high dispersions on Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 88 72 90 73 / 10 0 20 0
FMY 88 73 88 74 / 20 0 20 0
GIF 88 71 88 73 / 20 10 10 0
SRQ 89 72 90 73 / 10 0 20 0
BKV 88 69 90 70 / 10 0 10 0
SPG 89 73 90 73 / 10 0 20 0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...19/Hurt
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