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FXUS62 KTBW 180520
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1220 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019


.AVIATION...
Shallow layer of BKN050 in southwest Florida at height of strong
temperature inversion was moving north toward PGD. This will limit
the fog potential to tempo 4SM BR. Least amount of clouds this
morning to be from TPA to LAL with LAL dropping to IFR clouds/vsby
at times 10-13Z. A weak cold front approaching the Florida Pan
Handle early this morning will settle over central or south Florida
overnight. Rain chance only 10-15%.

&&taf


.Previous Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Looking at latest satellite images not much sign of any sea fog,
but as the night progresses the chance should increase, along with
some fog over land. However, the latest models are indicating that
a deck of clouds between about 3500 and 6000 feet will develop
across the area in the moist southerly flow overnight into Monday
morning and this would limit the overall fog threat on land. For
now will leave the forecast as it is and continue with the patchy
to areas of fog/sea fog.

&&

MARINE...
High pressure over the Atlantic will continue the southerly flow
through Monday with the threat of sea fog developing. The greatest
threat for fog will be tonight into tomorrow morning. A cold
front will move into the northern waters Monday night into early
Tuesday before quickly dissipating. High pressure quickly takes
back over with south to southeast winds through the remainder of
the period. A few showers are possible early in the week, but rain
chances generally remain low.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 221 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday)...

Our friends to the north across the Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachians will see periods of heavy rainfall as low pressure
moves east and drags a cold front along with it. However, due to
strong ridging across the Bahamas and SE FL, the current jet pattern
and associated storm track is deflected well to our north which will
provide us with a prolonged glimpse of late Spring. Widespread low
to mid 80s, and even some upper 80s, is possible today and Monday
which is well above climatological averages. The aforementioned
front will make its into north FL Monday night before stalling and
quickly washing out. Expect only a slight improvement on
humidity, with temps a few degrees cooler across the Nature
Coast before quickly warming back up.

Similar to the discussion yesterday afternoon, fog (both land and
sea) will be the main weather concern through the short term period.
Moisture trapped beneath the low level subsidence inversion will
promote the development of early morning fog and low stratus Monday
morning, especially where surface winds lighten up. Sea fog is also
likely to develop across the waters by this evening into tomorrow as
this will be the best southerly advection of moisture across the
relatively cooler Gulf waters.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through next Sunday)...

The center of a stout mid level ridge meandering north of
Hispaniola and east of the Bahamas sprawls across FL and the
adjacent Gulf of Mexico waters. A frontal boundary along
the northern Gulf coast lifts north Tue as Atlantic high
pressure ridges across FL to the central Gulf of Mexico for
most of the period. Then late in the weekend the ridge
begins to shift away from FL as a cold front approaches.

Warm and generally stable conditions prevail. Lower level
southwesterly to southeasterly flow will provide enough moisture for
slight chance to chance showers most days. In addition the moisture
will keep the air mass on the humid side for Feb. Temperatures run
above normal and may come close to a few record values.

FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will dominate our weather pattern. South to
southeast winds will be gusty at times in the afternoon
along with patchy fog overnight into the early morning
hours. Only a slight chance of showers each afternoon with
no significant amounts of rain expected. Otherwise, RH will
remain well above critical levels through the next 7 days
and preclude any fire weather concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 69 80 67 82 / 10 20 20 20
FMY 70 83 69 84 / 10 20 10 10
GIF 67 84 66 83 / 0 20 20 30
SRQ 68 80 67 80 / 10 10 10 20
BKV 67 83 63 82 / 10 30 20 30
SPG 68 79 67 80 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/Close
PREV DISCUSSION...42/Norman & 09/Rude
UPPER AIR...19/Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT...11/McKaughan
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