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FXUS62 KTBW 161839
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
239 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Tuesday)...
Mid/upper-level troughing continues to spread over the eastern half
of the country this afternoon, with the surface cold front
continuing its push into the southeast. KTBW radar imagery continues
to show some showers across the northern forecast area and over
toward the east coast and this activity should increase some through
the rest of the day, especially as the west coast sea breeze
develops.

For tonight, the overall moistening of the atmosphere will continue
ahead of the cold front, As mentioned for the past several days,
this front will slow over the northern peninsula tonight, keeping
the drier air to our north, although Levy county could feel a bit of
this- it will be close. With focus ahead of the front and increasing
moisture, we will keep rain chances in the isolated to scattered
range overnight.

On Tuesday, stronger surface high pressure building into the
southeast will allow some of that drier air to finally intrude
southward, so we are likely to see dew points a few degrees below
those for today, as well as high temperatures closer to climatic
normals. As far as rain chances go, the position of the high will
keep a rather robust northeast low-level flow in place, so scattered
showers with a few thunderstorms can be expected through most of the
day, along with mostly cloudy skies. All of this will hold
temperatures down near or maybe even slightly below normal values.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night-Monday)...
The mid-week and late week period will see a series of weak midlevel
shortwave impulses migrating over the FL peninsula around the
eastern periphery of upper ridging parked over the western and
central Gulf of Mexico. Luckily, this energy will not have much
column moisture to work with, and will actually progressively further
limit the available moisture with each passage. Rain chances by
Wednesday will be dropping off to the north of the Nature Coast, but
will likely will see at least a scattering of diurnal showers
further south down the peninsula. As the drier air aloft slowly digs
further south, we should see rain chances dropping over our southern
areas for Thursday and Friday as well. Upper ridge over the Gulf
will slowly migrate east was well during this time, taking up
residence over the FL peninsula by later Friday and Saturday, before
shifting east of the region by the end of the upcoming weekend.
Renewed southerly flow behind this ridge should begin to increase
our rain chances once again by Sunday into early next week.

Likely the biggest forecast concern through this period will be the
continuation of the elevated northeasterly winds over the Gulf of
Mexico and resulting choppy to hazardous boating conditions. This
appears as through it will be an extended duration event...lingering
on for the extent of the week to come and into at least the first
half of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail at area terminals this afternoon and can
generally be expected through the rest of the evening. Will keep
VCSH/VCTS in the forecast to account for any quick showers or storms
that move over the airports this afternoon and evening. Showers will
then be possible overnight as a frontal boundary approaches the
region, so will leave a mention in this forecast package. Winds will
become light out of the northeast or rather variable overnight and
then become stronger out of the northeast into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
An approaching frontal boundary will slow over the northern waters
tonight, with winds speeds increasing to 15-20 knots. High pressure
will build into the southeast behind this front, with several days
of elevated northeasterly winds and choppy conditions likely for the
rest of the week. Cautionary to advisory-level winds will be
possible tonight into early Tuesday for the northern Gulf waters and
then will spread southward to include the rest of the forecast
waters with a pronounced nocturnal wind surge each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible tonight
through Tuesday as a cold front approaches the region. High pressure
will then build into the southeast, with drier air filtering into
the region through the end of the week. This will keep rain chances
low for the end of the week, but relative humidity values will still
not be low enough for any fire weather concerns. Widespread dense
fog is not expected at this time, but some patchy fog ground fog is
possible tonight.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 74 82 71 86 / 40 30 10 30
FMY 74 85 72 86 / 20 40 30 50
GIF 72 82 70 83 / 30 40 20 30
SRQ 73 83 71 84 / 30 30 10 30
BKV 71 80 68 85 / 40 20 10 20
SPG 74 82 71 85 / 30 30 10 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/Carlisle
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka
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