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FXUS62 KTBW 181319
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
919 AM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Mid/upper-level ridging remains over the state this morning with a
band of drier air clearly noted on water vapor imagery. This drier
air is lingering right over the central part of the peninsula and is
forecast to persist through much of the day. At the surface, the
subtropical ridge axis is stretched across the north-central
peninsula, with a light southeast low-level flow in place across the
forecast area. These winds will turn onshore in the afternoon as the
sea breeze circulation gets going, but the dry air will keep rain
chances low for most areas. The exception is over the southwest
Florida region, where the air is not as dry. The overall forecast is
on track with just a few minor tweaks made this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected outside of any thunderstorm activity
this afternoon. Best chances are for KLAL as well as KPGD, KFMY, and
KRSW. Chances are too low to mention for the other sites. Light and
variable winds this morning will become more southwest to west along
the coast this afternoon with the sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain over the region for the next several days.
Winds and seas will be briefly higher in or near thunderstorms, but
otherwise no headlines are expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 92 78 91 78 / 10 10 20 20
FMY 91 76 91 76 / 50 10 30 20
GIF 95 75 92 75 / 30 20 50 30
SRQ 89 77 89 77 / 10 10 10 20
BKV 93 73 92 75 / 10 10 30 20
SPG 92 79 90 78 / 10 10 10 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Coastal
Manatee.

Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05/Carlisle
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