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FXUS62 KTBW 231848
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
248 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today and Sunday)...
A zonal flow pattern overspreads much of the Lower 48 with
subtle shortwave troughs across the Pacific Northwest and
Northeast. To the south, weak upper ridging continues to
hold over the Gulf of Mexico with the surface ridge axis
extending across south Florida into the central Gulf of
Mexico. This feature will be the primary driver of our
weather over the next two days.

For the remainder of today, we continue to monitor
convective trends across the region. Similar to yesterday,
with the persistent westerly flow, it seems storms are
having a very hard time developing without a lifting
mechanism such as the seabreeze. This is the opposite across
the Florida Atlantic coast, where scattered thunderstorms
are already in progress. Still, based on several recent high
resolution model runs, it seems storms will eventually get
going mainly south of I-4 and east of I-75 where outflows
from west coast storms meet a weak seabreeze. This activity
will likely linger into the evening with gradual
dissipation.

On Sunday, the ridge axis will begin to lift northward,
resulting in winds across southern Florida becoming more
southeasterly, and south/southwest along the Nature Coast.
In this configuration, a more active pattern looks to become
established for showers and thunderstorms. Activity should
begin late morning to early afternoon and progress westward
toward the southwest Florida coast late afternoon into the
evening, with greater rain chances along the I-75 corridor
than we have recently seen. Showers and storms will move
offshore in the evening hours.

Seasonably hot afternoon temperatures will persist with
highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. With generally onshore
flow, lows will remain quite warm in the mid 70s inland and
upper 70s along the coast.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night - Saturday)...
Westerly low level flow of late will continue to
transistion to an east southeast flow during the first half
of the upcoming week as the surface ridge axis lifts
northward and sets up shop across the northern Florida
peninsula through the period. With the ridge axis to the
north the east-southeast wind flow combined with ample
moisture (PW's in the 1.7 to 2 inch range) will favor the
highest pops and best sea breeze driven storm coverage along
and to the west of I-75 corridor from the Tampa Bay area
south into southwest FL during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

During Thursday a weakening frontal boundary will sink into
and stall out across the southeastern states. As it does so
the surface ridge axis will get nudged back south a bit to
lie across the central peninsula with a very weak steering
flow expected. This ridge position will favor more uniform
convective coverage each day through Saturday with the
highest pops and sea breeze driven storm coverage expected
along and to the west of the I-75 corridor from Levy county
south to Lee county each day during the afternoon and early
evening hours. With ample moisture in place and slow storm
motion some locally heavy rains with minor flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas will be possible each day with
the storms. In addition, frequent lightning strikes and
strong gusty winds will accompany the storms. Temperatures
will run a few degrees above normal through the period with
overnight lows in the mid 70s inland areas, and upper 70s to
around 80 along the coast with daytime highs climbing to
around 90 along the coast, and lower to mid 90s inland each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (18z TAFs)...
Showers and storms may result in brief IFR
visibilities/ceilings for inland and southern terminals.
Otherwise VFR conditions and west/northwest winds to
continue, becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and seas to persist over the next several days
as high pressure remains over the waters. Persistent west
winds will become more southerly/easterly into early next
week as the ridge shifts a bit northward. Spotty marine
showers and storms will be the only concern, mainly in the
evening and overnight through morning hours. These could
locally enhance winds and seas. Otherwise, favorable boating
conditions are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant moisture and daily chances for rain will prevent
any fire danger concerns through the coming week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 79 92 77 92 / 20 70 30 40
FMY 75 92 74 92 / 60 70 50 70
GIF 75 94 75 94 / 50 60 40 50
SRQ 78 91 75 91 / 10 60 50 40
BKV 74 92 74 93 / 20 60 30 30
SPG 80 90 78 91 / 10 60 30 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael
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