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FXUS62 KTBW 090045
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
845 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.UPDATE...
Quiet evening for early July with only a few small light showers
here and there. The west to northwest flow will persist overnight
and Thursday with more isolated to scattered convection expected
to develop over the northeast Gulf of Mexico overnight and
beginning to move onshore late tonight and early Thursday morning
from around Tampa Bay northward. This convection will continue to
move/develop inland during the late morning and afternoon hours
with highest chances over the Nature Coast and interior counties
where moisture will be deepest. Overall the current forecast looks
ok with no changes planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through period although brief
MVFR/local IFR restrictions may occur with any shower or
thunderstorm affecting terminals Thursday. West to northwest winds
will diminish to less than 10 knots tonight then increase back to
around 10 knots late Thursday morning with some higher gusts in
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure stretching over the Gulf of Mexico with a general
westerly flow is expected through forecast period. Winds and seas
will remain below headline criteria, although any thunderstorms
could produce locally hazardous boating conditions.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Similar pattern characterized by westerly flow continues across
the area with high pressure ridging extending across the southern
peninsula from the central Gulf and low pressure to our north over
much of the Southeast CONUS. Setup will continue to favor showers
and thunderstorms along coastal areas early then migrating inland
through the afternoon hours. Flow today has featured a bit of a
northerly component as the low pressure area off the Carolinas
gradually organizes. The Gulf ridge will shift west into the
weekend while Eastern CONUS troughing is reinforced, leading to
continued west to northwest flow across the region which will
extend into next week. Therefore, can expect shower/storm chances
to remain focused over coastal locations during overnight and
morning hours while shifting inland into the afternoon hours
through most of the forecast period. Expect afternoon highs in the
low/mid 90s with heat index values in the triple digits, possibly
approaching advisory levels for a few locations.

FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will maintain west to
northwest winds through most of the forecast period. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will push onshore during the
morning hours, becoming more numerous and shifting inland through
the afternoon. Minimum RH values expected to remain above critical
levels, with elevated dispersion indices expected again this
afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 80 92 80 91 / 10 20 20 40
FMY 78 94 79 93 / 10 10 10 30
GIF 76 93 76 92 / 10 30 10 60
SRQ 80 92 80 91 / 10 10 10 30
BKV 76 92 75 92 / 20 20 20 60
SPG 79 93 80 92 / 10 20 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Close
PREV DISCUSSION...Hurt
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme
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