FXUS62 KTBW 281332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
932 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Dissipating boundary across north Florida with high pressure
moving across the eastern U.S. will begin the transition to a
more east to northeast flow across the region today. Can see this
wind shift in the surface observations and visible satellite
imagery as the low clouds are moving southwest across the Nature
Coast into Polk County and east central Florida. This push will
limit the sea breeze development along the Nature Coast this
afternoon while further south still expect a shift to west and
northwest for a few hours before going to east to northeast again
early this evening. Still plenty of moisture in place so with the
development of the bay/sea breezes will see scattered to numerous
convection develop and move toward the west this afternoon and
evening. Overall the grids/zone forecast look ok and only made
some minor adjustments to winds and temperatures for today.


Some areas MVFR ceilings will be possible during mid to late
morning once daytime heating gets underway, then scattered
convection this afternoon and evening will cause MVFR/local IFR
conditions. Light winds will become east to northeast this
morning, then shift to west to northwest at the coastal TAF sites
of TPA, PIE, SRQ this afternoon as the sea breeze develops. East
coast sea breeze will move westward early this evening shifting
winds back to east to northeast at all sites.


East to northeast flow will become established across the northern
waters today as high pressure well to the north builds south.
Otherwise, the rather light winds will shift to onshore with the
sea breeze further south before shifting back to easterly and
increasing some tonight. The east to southeast flow will then
continue for the next few days with a shift to onshore with the
sea breeze during each afternoon. Only marine hazard will be
isolated to scattered thunderstorms, which could locally enhance
winds and seas, and produce heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 90 77 91 77 / 50 40 40 20
FMY 92 75 91 75 / 40 30 40 30
GIF 91 74 93 75 / 60 30 50 30
SRQ 90 75 90 77 / 30 20 30 20
BKV 90 73 91 74 / 50 40 50 20
SPG 90 78 91 79 / 40 30 30 20


Gulf waters...None.


UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
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