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FXUS65 KTFX 240440
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1035 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

Little to no updates needed this evening, as the afternoon
forecast is holding firm. A weak disturbance will encroach on the
Hi-Line this evening, however, moisture is very limited and am
only expecting a slight increase in cloud cover over North Central
Montana. For this reason, did adjust cloud cover up slightly.
With this slight increase in cloud cover, did warm overnight lows
a degree or two to account for a decrease in radiational cooling
overnight. Winds will continue to decrease throughout the
nighttime hours, before becoming breezy from the south to
southwest tomorrow morning. - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0435Z.

VFR conditions will continue through at least Friday evening. A
moist southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough will move
east into the forecast area after 12Z, bringing increasing mid and
high level clouds mainly after 18Z. A few showers will develop over
the mountains, but terminals will likely remain dry during this
forecast period. However, breezy and gusty southerly winds will
develop ahead of an approaching Pacific cold front after 15Z, which
will shift more southwesterly behind the front after 00Z at KCTB and
KHLN. Coulston

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
300 PM Update.

Water levels on the Milk River and its tributaries in Blaine/Hill
counties remain elevated but are mostly below flood stage and
continuing to gradually decrease. Lodge creek near the Canadian
border remains near minor flood stage but is anticipated to decrease
further tonight with gauges upstream all showing decreasing water
levels. No flood warnings are currently in effect but we will
continue to closely monitor river conditions in these areas. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 500 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

Tonight through Saturday...Large upper low continues to bring
widespread precip to our south and east...leaving us under mainly
dry ridging. Still can't rule out a few rain and mountain snow
showers across the west and south...with just some fair weather
cumulus clouds elsewhere. A weak wave does skirt the Hi-Line this
evening...perhaps producing a very isolated shower. Confidence was
not high enough to include this in the forecast. Overnight
tonight into Friday morning...the dry air in ID moves into our
region bringing mainly clear and dry conditions. Dry conditions
and breezy southerly winds are expected to be the story for
Friday. With RH values expected to be in the 20s and wind gusts
generally 20 to 30+ MPH...those trying to get a start on spring ag
burning should use caution or delay burning operations. Ridge
pushes out of the region Friday evening...bringing increasingly
moist sw flow. This combined with a weak cold front may produce a
few rain showers...with snow showers above 5000 feet Friday
evening through Friday night. Broadscale trough could then bring
chances for rain and snow showers across western...southern...and
some central portions of the CWA. Snow levels could remain around
5000 to 6000 feet for Saturday...with little snow accumulations
expected. Winds may again be breezy on Saturday...mainly across
northern portions...which could once again elevate fire weather
concerns. Friday will see temps return into the 60s...with Friday
night's front bringing a slight cool down...but still above
average...temperatures on Saturday. Anglin

Saturday Night through Thursday...Remaining areas of rain or snow
clear to the east Saturday night with a departing upper level
trough. Ridging aloft will maintain fair weather Sunday and Sunday
night. The next Pacific system advances moisture up to the
Continental Divide by Monday afternoon. This longwave trough splits
while crossing the intermountain west, producing the highest chances
for precipitation Monday night across Southwest Montana. Snow levels
remain uncertain, but currently suggest snow or mixed rain/snow
could occur overnight down into the southwest valleys Monday night.
Conditions improve later Tuesday through Thursday morning aside from
scattered, mainly mountain showers. Temperatures remain slightly
above average through the period. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 29 62 38 58 / 0 0 20 20
CTB 25 55 34 52 / 0 10 10 10
HLN 31 61 37 55 / 0 10 30 20
BZN 25 56 36 52 / 0 0 30 30
WEY 17 42 29 40 / 10 10 50 50
DLN 27 54 33 51 / 0 10 30 20
HVR 28 62 37 59 / 10 0 20 0
LWT 27 58 36 53 / 0 0 10 20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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