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FXUS65 KTFX 192001
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
201 PM MDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible across north central
Montana this evening giving way to mostly clear skies across the
region Friday. Temperatures around 90 through Saturday with breezy
afternoon conditions possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected across northern portions of central Montana while the
remainder of the area remains dry. High pressure builds across the
Northern Rockies allowing temperatures to rebound back into the 90s
with mostly dry and breezy/windy conditions expected Friday
afternoon. As a result, Fire Zones 112 and 114 have been upgraded to
a Red Flag Warning (see Fire Weather Discussion below). Very
warm/hot and breezy conditions are expected across central Montana
again Saturday afternoon as a thermal trough develops ahead of a
Canadian cool front expected to push into the forecast area Saturday
night. Scattered showers/thunderstorms may develop over Southwest
Montana Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night through Thursday...Medium range models remain in very
good agreement moving an upper level trough through the Northern
Rocky Mountain region Saturday night and Sunday. A surface cool
front moves southward from Canada Saturday night with cooler air
lingering over central Montana through Monday. Model guidance has
backed off on the degree of cooling expected for this time frame
(currently showing 70s and lower 80s) and mostly dry conditions will
likely prevail Sunday through Tuesday. The upper trough continues
moving eastward, then stalls out over the Great Lakes region,
leaving Montana beneath a mostly dry northwest flow aloft Wednesday
and Thursday. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms can be
expected late in the forecast period and temperatures will likely
rebound slowly upward. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1800z.

Widespread VFR conditions across the region. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms near the Canadian border spread southeastward from 21Z
through 06Z Friday, possibly producing variable and gusty winds,
lightning, and small hail near the border. Brief MVFR conditions
will be possible in some storms. Winds will be light and variable.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Updated 4 AM MDT Thursday

Afternoon highs will rebound back into the 90s Friday and
Saturday. Very dry and breezy/windy conditions are expected across
the districts Friday afternoon. Lower elevation grasslands
(generally below 5000 feet) in Fire Zones 112 and 114, near
Glacier County, can expect to see sustained winds around or above
15 knots with RH values below 20% so a Fire Weather Watch for
these areas continues from Noon through 9 PM Friday. Other
grassland locations may see borderline critical fire weather
conditions as well, so will not rule out the chance that
additional areas could be added to this fire weather highlight in
the next 24 hours. Continued very warm/hot and breezy conditions
are possible again on Saturday so would not be surprised to see
additional highlights issued in the coming days as well. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 55 90 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 49 85 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 56 90 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 51 88 52 88 / 0 0 0 20
WEY 41 81 45 79 / 0 0 10 20
DLN 51 87 52 86 / 0 0 0 20
HVR 58 93 55 90 / 20 0 0 0
LWT 54 86 54 84 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
below 5000 feet for Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern
Pondera/Liberty...Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain
District-Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
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