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FXUS65 KTFX 152055
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
255 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Near-normal temperatures through this Tuesday will be accompanied by
isolated showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for these
showers and storms exists during the afternoon and early evening, as
well as over and near higher terrain. A cooling trend begins this
Wednesday and continues through the rest of next week, with below-
normal temperatures expected next week Thursday through Saturday.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible, and
some snow may fall in our mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through Tuesday...Westerly to northwesterly flow aloft
and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our CWA. Accordingly,
isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day,
especially during the afternoon and early evening hours, as well as
over and near higher terrain. No severe thunderstorms are
anticipated today through Monday, since instability and vertical
shear look to be fairly modest. Nevertheless, strong wind gusts,
small hail, and downpours may accompany any storm. The potential of
severe thunderstorms may increase on Tuesday, when instability and
vertical wind shear may be greater ahead of an approaching cold
front. Near-normal temperatures persist through this period.

Wednesday through next Saturday...A cold front is progged to sweep
eastward across our CWA Wednesday as a trough aloft overspreads the
region from the north and west. This front may cross our area
Wednesday morning and early afternoon, greatly limiting diurnal
destabilization of the atmosphere and strong to severe thunderstorm
potential. This is something that will continue to be monitored.
Latest ensemble mean 500 mb heights from the EPS and GEFS are in
good agreement that this trough will persist over our CWA during the
rest of the week as the trough moves generally eastward. Thus, a
cooling trend occurs during this period and temperatures should be
below-normal on Thursday through next Saturday. In addition,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day.
- Jaszka

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1011 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019 (18Z/Sat TAFs)

Northwesterly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our area
during the next 24-hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain
possible, especially over and southeast of higher terrain. The best
potential for showers and storms exists between 18Z/Sat and 03Z/Sun.
Small hail and wind gusts up to 35 knots are possible with any
storm. In addition, downpours and brief MVFR CIGS/VSBY are possible
with any shower or storm. Regional surface winds remain light.
- Jaszka

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 51 73 50 76 / 50 10 10 30
CTB 47 72 47 75 / 50 20 20 40
HLN 51 76 51 78 / 20 20 20 60
BZN 47 75 47 76 / 20 30 30 50
WEY 39 69 40 71 / 40 40 30 70
DLN 47 73 48 73 / 30 30 40 50
HVR 49 76 48 78 / 20 10 10 10
LWT 47 69 46 71 / 30 20 10 50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
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