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FXUS65 KTFX 170950
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
250 AM MST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure brings dry and gradually warmer conditions through
the middle of next week. The lone exception may be some light snow
or flurries Sunday into early Monday over parts of north-central
Montana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Skies will continue to clear through mid-morning and persist through
the day, with light winds and cold temperatures remaining in place.
A few areas may see some patchy fog, some of which could be dense,
at least briefly. High pressure begins to build through Sunday
keeping the forecast area dry with gradually warming temperatures
and breezy southwest winds. The one possible exception to the
expected dry weather will be with a pair of weak systems moving
southeast from western Canada to the northern US plains Sunday into
early Monday, which may graze north-central MT with clouds and some
flurries or light snow, mainly north and east of Havre. Temperatures
will still be about 10 degrees below normal today but warm back to
the low 50s by Monday, remaining there through most of the week.
High pressure begins to shift east Thursday into Friday, possibly
bringing a few showers to the Continental Divide and the mountains
of southwest MT. A frontal feature may move across the region next
weekend but agreement is marginal at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0504Z.
Light snow continues over much of North Central and Southwest MT
late this evening. The snow is diminishing slower than previously
thought, but should begin to dissipate from north to south starting
between 06z and 09z across north-central and central MT, and as late
as around 12z over parts of southwest MT. IFR conditions tonight
will give way to more widespread VFR conditions on Saturday. Kept
dense fog out of the terminals for now, but it is possible in a few
spots over North Central MT on Saturday morning if skies clear out
around 12z. Mountains/passes will be obscured through 10z Sat, then
improve rapidly from north to south by around 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 31 23 41 24 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 33 21 40 21 / 0 0 0 10
HLN 31 11 40 19 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 28 0 36 15 / 0 0 0 0
WEY 29 -11 30 2 / 0 0 0 10
DLN 32 8 40 16 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 30 14 41 25 / 0 0 10 10
LWT 28 16 40 22 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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