FXUS63 KTOP 050855
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
255 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A FEW REMAINING AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR ST JOSEPH MO THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEXT FEW HOURS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY ICE TO FORM
ON AREA ROADS DUE TO CURRENT MOISTURE IN PLACE IF TEMPERATURES DROP
QUICKLY DUE TO BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE OUTSIDE EXCEPTION REVOLVING
AROUND STRATUS HEADING DOWN THE MO VALLEY...CURRENTLY AT SIOUX CITY.
SOME OF THIS LOW CLOUD COVER MAY SNEAK INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS BY
MID MORNING IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH
COOLER READINGS IN THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. CLEAR
SKIES AND WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN WARMING MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL NOTABLY INCREASE BY
MONDAY EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAIN SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AND NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO WARRANT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SATURATE TO INTRODUCE ICE INTO THE COLUMN...AND
MOST SECTIONS WITHIN THE CWA SUPPORT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING
THE PERIOD. INITIAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE
MIDDLE 40S SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...WHILE A RELATIVELY ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED...NO DISTURBANCES APPEAR TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG. FORECAST IS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BLAIR

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TOP AND MHK FOR THE
NIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS AT FOE. SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. 67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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