FXUS63 KTOP 180537

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1137 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Temperatures warmed to near freezing today with pockets of sunshine
appearing at times across northeast KS. Quiet weather is expected to
continue in the short-term before another system approaches the

The upper level flow currently shows an amplified pattern across the
country with one upper low moving into the Great Lakes region and
another digging into the Great Basin. Dry weather is expected to
continue overnight with surface ridging building into the area. With
the ridge in place, lows are expected to dip into the teens by early
tomorrow morning. Northwest winds will be fairly light but wind
chills could be in the single digits to start the workweek. For
tomorrow afternoon, a weak piece of energy looks to advect into the
Plains ahead of the main upper level system in the west, which could
produce some light snow over portions of central KS. At this time,
the TOP CWA looks to stay dry throughout the day with clouds filling
back in ahead of that main wave.

Attention will then turn to the chance for another round of wintry
precipitation and accumulating snowfall as the main wave approaches
on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

The H5 low currently located over northern CA/NV will continue
digging into the southwest and begin pivoting out toward the High
Plains Tuesday, advecting energy and moisture into the region.
Fairly uniform large-scale ascent will occur over the CWA in
response to upper level divergence and lifting associated with the
left exit region of the upper jet. As a result, a wide swath of
precipitation is likely to develop over portions of central OK and
KS midday Tuesday and move toward northern and eastern KS. The low
level temperature and moisture profile, per BUFKIT forecast sounding
guidance, should support a mainly snow event Tuesday evening through
Tuesday night for the area with temperatures below freezing and
saturation occurring through the ice growth region of the profile.
As mid-level drier air moves in late the event, freezing rain or
freezing drizzle could mix in briefly early Wednesday morning before
precipitation comes to an end. Current thinking for total
accumulations is a widespread 2 to 4 inches of snow with a glaze
of ice possible on top.

There will be a brief break in precipitation chances midweek as a
surface ridge takes control of our conditions. Slight warming is
expected to occur through midweek with highs finally reaching above
freezing (but still below climatological normals) on both Thursday
and Friday. Meanwhile, yet another deep upper level trough will
begin building across the western CONUS, which would indicate the
possibility of a return to unsettled weather by next weekend.
Being a good 5 to 7 days out, there is currently a considerable
amount of model variability and disagreement from run to run and
model to model with that next system. Will have to monitor through
the week to hone in on precip type and timing details for the
Friday through Sunday timeframe.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the
overnight hours. The main uncertainty is with cigs as several
models continue to suggest a shallow stratus deck developing by
Monday morning and lingering through much of the day, with
occasional periods of prevailing MVFR cigs possible. However,
confidence remains low with regards to the prevailing aspect for MVFR
cigs so have kept just a scattered mention of it and will
continue to monitor in future TAF updates.




LONG TERM...Teefey
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