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FXUS63 KTOP 150849
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
349 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Early this morning, the last of the light snow dissipated as the mid-
level trough axis progressed further eastward across Kansas, with
surface high pressure quickly advancing into the area behind this
exiting system. Northwesterly surface winds were helping to advect
much colder air into the region, with temperatures plunging to near
or below freezing. Satellite imagery showed areas of stratus over
over south central NE and north central KS continuing to progress
southeastward across the area, so this cloud cover may hinder just
how low temperatures drop early this morning. Even so, expect
readings in the upper 20s to low 30s by around sunrise, so have kept
the Freeze Warning in place through mid-morning for much of north
central, central, and northeast KS.

With surface high pressure continuing to overspread the region today
through tonight, expect dry conditions with winds shifting from
northwest to west by this evening. Despite the much-welcomed
abundant sunshine, these northwesterly winds will still keep
temperatures 20-25F degrees below the seasonal normals with highs
topping out only in the mid 40s. The center of the surface high
will shift south of the CWA by tonight, resulting in mostly clear
skies and light winds overnight. These conditions should support
decent radiational cooling with lows plunging into the upper
20s/near 30 degrees. As a result, a Freeze Warning has been issued
for the entire outlook area for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Conditions for the long range remain rather benign. WNW low-level
flow brings downslope-modified parcels in for Tuesday for temps
around 15 F warmer than today. Modest cold-air advection Tuesday
night around 850 mb does little to bring much of a sensible change
for Wednesday thanks to deeper mixing. Lower levels saturate
somewhat Thursday into early Friday and could support some shower
activity Thursday night into Friday for mainly southern and eastern
locations though another modified continental airmass moves in
Friday afternoon and evening and dries the column once again. The
weekend periods remain nondescript as a Rex block attempts to form
in the western CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

For the 06Z TAFs, have kept -SN for the first hour near the
KTOP/FOE terminals as the bands of snow continue to weaken and
move out of the area. KMHK should end prior to the 06Z time frame.
Conditions improve every hour rapidly into the 09Z time frame with
dry air moving into the area. Some SCT low level clouds persist
through morning.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Record Low Temperatures (year set):
---------------------------------
October 15 October 16
Topeka 27 (1891) 24 (1966)
Concordia 28 (1943) 24 (1966)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>012-
020>024-034>036.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ026-037>040-
054-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake
CLIMATE...65
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