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FXUS64 KTSA 250443
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cold front is currently working through eastern OK with a windshift
to the northwest. Areas of showers will move into the eastern OK
TAF sites after 09-10Z and the AR sites after 12Z. Cigs will become
MVFR late tonight, with IFR conditions by Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 842 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

UPDATE...

Some minor adjustments were made to the forecast tonight. See
discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough extends from Ontario Canada southwest into the
central Rockies. At the basal portion of this larger scale trough,
an embedded PV max was spinning over western Nebraska, southeast
Wyoming and northeast Colorado. This system will continue to dive
southeast toward our region tonight and then move overhead late
Wednesday, bringing rain with possibly a few thunderstorms. At
the surface, a cold front was analyzed from near KC southwest to
PNC to near CDS. This front will continue south and east across
our region tonight, leading to a much cooler day on Wednesday.

There were no major changes to the forecast this evening. PoPs
were increased some to the north and west of Tulsa, and QPF was
updated based on the latest hi-res guidance. Thunder potential
will be minimal at best, and the updated forecast will confine
this to the west and south of Tulsa tonight. Updated text products
have been sent.

Lacy


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 52 59 45 68 / 60 90 10 10
FSM 55 64 48 69 / 10 80 30 10
MLC 53 60 45 68 / 20 70 10 10
BVO 51 60 43 68 / 80 90 20 10
FYV 50 60 46 65 / 10 80 40 10
BYV 49 61 46 66 / 10 80 50 10
MKO 52 60 46 67 / 30 80 20 10
MIO 51 61 44 67 / 50 80 40 10
F10 52 59 45 68 / 30 90 10 10
HHW 55 64 45 70 / 20 60 10 10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....18
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