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FXUS64 KTSA 122314
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
514 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Band of snow across NE OK continues to decrease in coverage and
intensity with a few isolated snow shower noted over far NW AR.
The precipitation is expected to continue to dwindle providing no
aviation impacts. MVFR ceilings remain widespread with a gradual
improvement from west to east expected overnight yielding VFR
conditions for Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 226 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing winter event is winding down across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this afternoon, with any lingering snow likely
to be east of the forecast area by mid to late evening. The
existing Winter Weather Advisory will be left alone for now, with
additional light snow continuing to move eastward across the area
at present. Any additional accumulation should be negligible.

The bigger issue tonight should be with the very cold temperatures
expected and any lingering liquid on roadways, especially elevated
surfaces and non-treated roads, leading to slick spots. Use
caution tonight and early tomorrow morning if you must be out and
about.

Over the next couple of days, the southern end of the upper level
trough will cut off as it moves into Texas and Oklahoma.
Additional light snow will be possible across mainly parts of
northwest and west central Arkansas Thursday morning as moisture
wraps around the eastern and northern sides of the upper low. Any
potential accumulations appear minor at this point.

Once the upper low passes, southerly winds return and temperatures
begin to increase for the latter part of the work week. Highs
should still be several degrees below normal even on the warmest
day, however.

Another cold front will make its approach over the weekend,
bringing another low chance of rain or snow to parts of the area
on Sunday. Lower temperatures should only hang around on Sunday,
with warmer weather likely to open the next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 18 36 17 44 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 25 39 21 44 / 20 0 0 10
MLC 22 37 18 42 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 13 35 11 43 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 18 33 13 41 / 20 0 0 10
BYV 19 32 16 41 / 20 0 0 10
MKO 20 36 17 42 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 17 32 13 41 / 20 0 0 0
F10 20 36 18 42 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 26 40 22 44 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
OKZ054>067.

AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-
002-010-011.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....07
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