FXUS64 KTSA 202301

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
601 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

RA/TSRA to impact the the AR sites for the first hour or two of
this TAF issuance with MVFR cigs and vsbys in thunder. Once storms
move east, VFR conditions will prevail, though there may be a
brief period of MVFR cigs development after 14z. Elsewhere, VFR
TAF elements will prevail through the entire period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/

Boundary that formed as a result of early morning thunderstorms
pushed into eastern OK, and has forced a narrow line of
thunderstorms that extends from near Miami-Henryetta at present.
Environment along/ahead of the convective band is not terribly
conducive to severe weather given modest shear and MUCAPE around
200 j/kg, though a few strong wind gusts possible with the more
linear clusters through early this evening. Synoptic cold front
will push into northeast OK and northwest AR later tonight, with
CAM solutions hinting at possible re-development across far
northeast sections late. For the most part though, dry weather
will prevail later tonight through Thursday as cold front sags
south and ushers in some lower dew points for a change.

Front is forecast to stall near the Red River, with at least a
limited potential for storms near the boundary in far southeast
OK Thursday night into Friday. The boundary is then expected to
lift back north as a shortwave in northwest flow moves across the
Rockies Friday night. Storms developing to our west will likely
grow into a complex of strong or possibly severe storms Friday
night and Saturday morning as moisture transport north of the
boundary increases during that time.

Another upper low will slowly move through the northern/central
Rockies into the plains early next week, keeping at least some
thunderstorm potential across mainly northern areas through about
Tuesday, with temperatures gradually heating back up.




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