FXUS64 KTSA 240233

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
933 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019


Things are pretty quiet at the moment thunderstorm-wise across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with only a few lighter
areas of precipitation present across a small part of Carroll and
Madison counties on the eastern periphery of a remnant MCV. There
will likely be two favored areas for thunderstorms overnight:
first, across far eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas, as
ongoing thunderstorms associated with a surface boundary across
northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas move and develop farther
north, and second, across parts of northeast Oklahoma as an MCS
moving into northwest Oklahoma approaches. The latter is expected
to be on the downswing as it moves into the area, with coverage
likely to be more scattered in nature and a diminished severe and
flash flooding threat. Due to the very wet antecedent conditions
across east central Oklahoma and west central Arkansas from this
morning's heavy rainfall, any heavy downpours that occur from
thunderstorms in that area will have to be watched closely. Enough
uncertainty exists in coverage and location to preclude a Flash
Flood Watch issuance, although the threat is certainly not zero.

The main changes to the going forecast this evening were to
fine tune POPs and QPF according to the above thinking, as well as
some minor tweaks to the sky cover, especially through midnight.
Updates already out.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019/

Mainly scattered mid/high clouds overnight with some patchy fog
possible across northwest Arkansas late tonight into Saturday
morning. A few scattered thunderstorms could move into portions
of northeast Oklahoma late tonight/Saturday morning and was covered
with a PROB30 group. IFR ceilings will likely develop in most
areas Saturday morning with VFR conditions forecast by mid to
late afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019/

Showers and thunderstorms from overnight and earlier today have
all dissipated, but have recently seen a bit of redevelopment in
far southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas. This activity
is occurring just to the north and northeast of an MCV from the
earlier convection.

The consensus of the latest data suggests that the greatest
chance for showers and storms overnight will be across the eastern
part of our forecast area. Upstream convection approaching from
the high plains is likely to weaken as it nears the area late
tonight or Saturday morning, but will keep some pops going into
Saturday just in case it survives longer than expected.

Another round of widespread showers and storms is expected late
Saturday night and Sunday morning as a stronger upper level
disturbance tracks southeast from the central plains. Heavy
rainfall will be a good bet in some places, and it is likely that
a flash flood watch will eventually be needed for parts of the
area during this time period.

Once the rain moves out Monday, temperatures will heat back up to
near normal levels. Dew points will be oppressive after the recent
rains, and heat headlines may be needed in some places Monday as a

A cold front will move south across the area Monday night through
Tuesday night bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms,
and ushering in cooler and at least slightly less humid air for
the middle part of next week. Medium range models are backing off
on the strength of a secondary front at the end of next week, so
it is looking more likely that Labor Day weekend will see
seasonable temperature and humidity levels rather than the cool,
dry conditions that have been previously advertised.

Made quite a bit of adjustment to the National Blend of Models
pops over the next couple days. Also adjusted NBM low temperatures
down some next Wednesday and Thursday, and highs up some next
Friday given the latest model trends.




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