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FXUS64 KTSA 262020
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
320 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A significant heavy rain and flood event expected to unfold Friday night
and into the weekend with 3 to 7 inches of rain common with locally
higher amounts possible. The axis of heaviest rain looks to be south and
east of Interstate 44. These amounts of rain will lead to widespread
flash flooding and increased main-stem river flooding. A flood watch
for this time frame will likely be issued later Tonight or Thursday morning.

As for Tonight, Patchy light rain will be possible early this evening
across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a mid-level shortwave
currently over central Oklahoma moves across the region. Temperatures Tonight
are expected to be about 10 degrees below normal with readings generally
in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The area will be between systems on Thursday. However, southerly winds will
begin to increase as the next storm system takes shape in the lee of the Rockies.
The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night across
northern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as mid-level shortwave moves across
the central plains and insentropic lift increases north of a warm front lifting
into southern Oklahoma.

On Friday, the warm front will continue to lift north before becoming quasi-stationary
near Interstate 40. This will set the stage for the potential for severe weather Friday
evening into Friday night as a cold front slowly moves into the increasingly unstable
airmass and as a mid-level low over the Four Corners Region exerts greater influence
over the area. Thunderstorms are expected to begin to develop late Friday afternoon
in the vicinity of the cold front and spread into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
during the evening hours. These storms will have the greatest potential to become severe
with Large hail and damaging winds the main concern. However, tornadoes will be possible
as well.

The event morphs more into a heavy rain and flood event late Friday night and on Saturday
as the frontal boundary lingers across the region and the Four Corners mid-level low slowly
pulls out into the Plains. The showers and thunderstorms come to an end by Sunday evening
as the mid-level low pulls of to the northeast of the area.

Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure prevails. The chances of showers
and thunderstorms return Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next storm system approaches
from the west.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 41 68 55 76 / 10 10 40 20
FSM 43 71 57 81 / 20 0 20 30
MLC 41 72 59 78 / 0 0 10 30
BVO 39 67 51 74 / 10 10 50 20
FYV 40 68 56 76 / 20 10 30 30
BYV 41 67 55 74 / 20 0 40 30
MKO 41 70 56 76 / 10 10 30 30
MIO 39 67 53 74 / 20 10 60 30
F10 42 70 58 76 / 10 20 20 30
HHW 43 72 58 79 / 0 0 10 30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....10
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