Location:  
MeteoStar


FXUS64 KTSA 182335
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
535 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection beginning to increase across NE OK and is expected to
steadily increase in coverage with isolated storms through the
evening. Largely MVFR to VFR ceilings through the evening ahead of
strong cold front moving into NE OK by late evening and through
western AR before sunrise Saturday. Strong winds will develop
behind the front and persist through much of the forecast. A
change over to snow is likely later tonight through Saturday
morning with NW AR terminals most likely to experience the longer
flight level reductions. Improving conditions Sat afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 255 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Extremely complicated forecast for the next 24 hours. 12/18Z
models have trended a bit slower/stronger with the upper cyclone
currently strengthening across the Rockies, which may result in an
uptick in the winter weather potential later tonight/early
Saturday.

Surface cyclone is currently deepening across northwest OK with
leading edge of colder air dropping into the TX panhandle. Surface
dewpoints have crept up into the lower 50s across southeast OK
ahead of this system, with much juicier air (low 60s dewpoint)
lurking farther south into TX. Expect an increase in convection
from southeast OK through western AR this evening and into the
overnight hours as the better low-level moisture is pulled north.
Increasing instability should be mostly elevated, although HREF
continues to show modest surface based instability for at least a
few hours this evening across parts of southeast OK. Some rotating
storms are certainly possible, although expect hail to be the
primary concern.

Colder air will begin filtering into northeast OK by late evening,
with northwesterly winds picking up as the pressure gradient
tightens. Have expanded the wind advisory a little farther east
for late tonight into early Saturday, with gusts around 40-45 mph
possible.

Expect a rather quick transition to wintry mix then all snow
later tonight. Most recent NAM/HRRR output suggests several hours
of post-frontal wintry precipitation, primarily across parts of
far northeast OK into northwest AR with current snowfall totals
around an inch or two possible. The combination of snow/gusty
winds may result in some travel impacts, so have opted for winter
weather advisory at this time. Evening shift may need to expand
this if the slower trend persists.

The bulk of the winter precipitation should be exiting the area
shortly after 18Z, with breezy and cold conditions the remainder
of the day. Wind chill values should dip into the single digits
Sunday morning across much of the area.

Milder weather is expected Sunday and especially Monday ahead of
the next upper wave. Precipitation chances return bu Tuesday,
although current temp fields suggest all liquid at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 27 31 17 42 / 70 20 0 0
FSM 35 36 21 44 / 80 50 0 0
MLC 30 33 19 45 / 80 20 0 0
BVO 26 29 14 41 / 80 20 0 0
FYV 29 30 15 41 / 90 60 0 0
BYV 30 31 16 40 / 90 80 0 0
MKO 29 32 18 42 / 90 30 0 0
MIO 25 28 14 38 / 90 60 0 0
F10 29 32 18 44 / 70 20 0 0
HHW 33 35 23 47 / 70 20 0 0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon CST Saturday for
OKZ057-058-062-063-068-069.

Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday for
OKZ054>075.

AR...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon CST Saturday for
ARZ001-002-010-011.

Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday for
ARZ001-010.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....07
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page