FXUS64 KTSA 262352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
652 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move into
Northwest Arkansas over the next couple of hours. At the same
time...strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to move into
Eastern Oklahoma from Central Oklahoma. These storms look to move
through the Eastern Oklahoma TAF sites over the next couple of
hours and then into Northwest Arkansas TAF sites around 02-03z.
Periods of MVFR conditions will be possible within the stronger
storms. Behind the two lines of storms...additional showers and
thunderstorms could be possible across Northeast Oklahoma into
Northwest Arkansas overnight tonight into Monday morning as the
upper low moves through the region. On the backside of the
low...IFR/MVFR ceilings look to wrap back into the CWA overnight
and are forecast to remain over the region into the afternoon
hours Monday. Toward the end of the TAF period...parts of Eastern
Oklahoma could possibly lift back to VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/


Active weather pattern will be maintained with several systems to
impact the Plains during this forecast cycle...with the first
just to west that will bring shower and thunderstorm
chances...along with severe potential to the region this evening
and tonight.

Moisture continues to surge north across central and west central
Oklahoma out ahead of a sharpening dry line thats just pushed
into far west central Oklahoma. Scattered showers and storms
developed earlier within the moist axis are moving northeast
..but these are moving into a less favorable environment which
will likely preclude severe weather with these storms. Additional
scattered activity is expected to fire up later this afternoon
along the dryline and translate east...entering eastern Oklahoma
in the 6-7 pm time period and it is at this time severe chances
will increase. Tornado potential will be highest with the initial
storms this evening...especially across southeast Oklahoma. As the
evening progresses...storms will become increasingly linear...and
will pose more of a straight-line wind and hail threat as they
move east.

This system will end storm chances on Monday...with a brief lull
before the next system barrels into the Plains in the Wednesday
and Thursday time frame. Features associated with this system are
a bit larger scale...so while there may be a window for severe
weather...it may be more of a widespread rain event with heavy
rain potential.

After a few settled days...the next system moves into the region
for the latter part of the weekend...and may offer area wide
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Concerning temperatures...stayed close to guidance given the
unsettled pattern expected during this forecast cycle.


TUL 54 68 45 75 / 80 10 0 10
FSM 58 70 50 75 / 80 20 0 10
MLC 59 72 47 77 / 80 10 0 10
BVO 50 67 39 73 / 80 10 0 10
FYV 55 66 39 69 / 80 40 0 10
BYV 56 65 43 65 / 80 50 0 10
MKO 56 69 45 76 / 80 10 0 10
MIO 53 66 42 70 / 90 40 0 10
F10 56 70 46 76 / 80 10 0 10
HHW 61 73 50 76 / 80 10 0 10




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