Location:  
MeteoStar


FXUS64 KTSA 231104
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
504 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through
the entire period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 256 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

..HIGH FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...
Cold start this morning before warming trend over the next couple
of days ahead of cold front which is expected Friday night. Strong
southerly winds coupled with limited moisture return will create
an elevated fire danger threat Friday afternoon as RH values fall
into the 30-35 percent range. A few locations could reach red flag
criteria and subsequent watches/warnings may be required as the specific
area becomes more certain. Nice/mild fall weather anticipated for
the Thanksgiving holiday weekend as surface ridge settles over
the region.

Fire weather will again become a significant concern as unseasonably
warm conditions develop on Monday with gusty winds in the 30 to
35 mph range. Afternoon minimum RH values will be a little higher
(around 40 percent), however this will likely be offset by the
stronger winds. Region remains extremely dry with little to no
rainfall over the past month and therefore any fires that start
could quickly spread out of control given the cured vegetation/fuel
loads.

Model solutions have diverged concerning frontal timing with
system Tuesday into Wednesday with GFS faster/more progressive
with cold front. ECMWF ensembles are a little quicker with upper
wave compared to the deterministic solution, so a blend between
faster GFS/slower ECMWF seems reasonable. Precipitation chances
still appear limited, especially if front moves through quicker on
Tuesday.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....23
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page