FXUS65 KTWC 152115
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
215 PM MST Sat Jun 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry conditions with seasonable daytime heat
through the coming week.
.DISCUSSION...The weak trough that brought our gusty winds has
pushed our temperatures back down to about average for mid June.
Do you say 100 is cooler or less hot than 107? At any rate, it has
also introduced a dry westerly flow with precipitable water values
around 1/3 of an inch and surface dew points bottoming out in the
teens and 20s this afternoon. Moisture is limited even across
most of Sonora and Chihuahua. Look further south and even Durango
is dry, with limited pushes inland past Sinaloa.
Deterministic ensembles and ensemble means keep some flavor of
westerly flow in place next week, with troughiness dominating much
of the west. That means no deep moisture transport in sight and
not much more than a few afternoon cumulus fields from time to
time as we see a few very shallow lower level pushes from the
.AVIATION...Valid through 17/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 10k-15k ft MSL in the White Mountains north of
KCFT thru early this evening. Otherwise, clear skies across
southeast Arizona into early Sunday morning, with FEW-SCT clouds AOA
20k ft MSL Sunday afternoon. SFC wind SWLY/WLY at 8-16 kts with
gusts to around 22 kts thru 16/02Z, then SFC wind less than 12 kts
thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind favoring a
SWLY/WLY direction Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected across most of southeast
Arizona through next Friday. The exception is a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the White Mountains Sunday afternoon. 20-foot winds
will generally be 15 mph or less over the next 7 days, with the
strongest wind speeds east of a line from Nogales to Safford. Expect
occasional gusts in the afternoon and early evening hours due to
strong surface heating. Slightly elevated wind speeds may occur
Monday afternoon across these eastern areas.
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