FXUS65 KTWC 052113
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
212 PM MST Fri Jun 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS...A passing weather system will bring isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
Thereafter, dry conditions will prevail with temperatures trending a
few degrees below normal this weekend through the middle portions of
.DISCUSSION...A weather system passing through the region today and
tonight will continue to aid in the development of scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms. The best chance of measurable rain will be
east of Tucson through this evening. Otherwise, the passage of this
system will mark the transition to a cooler weather regime for this
weekend into the middle of next week. This cooler pattern will be
temporary as models showed a return to hotter conditions, similar to
this past week, by Thursday.
.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 12-15k ft MSL and SCT-BKN 20-25k ft MSL. Isold to sct
-TSRA will be possible mainly east of KTUS and KOLS this afternoon
through tonight. Main threats with any storm will be gusty outflow
winds and lightning. Otherwise, surface wind southwest at 12-18 kts
with gusts to 25 kts this afternoon becoming variable in direction
less than 10 kts overnight. Winds increase again Saturday afternoon
out of the southwest 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-22 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly north to
east of Tucson through tonight. Strong and erratic winds are
possible with any thunderstorm and any rains will be on the light
side. Gusty southwest wind expected this afternoon with local and
brief critical fire weather conditions possible far western zone 150
(west of Sells) where winds should be the strongest. Not enough area
or duration expected at this time for a red flag warning.
Otherwise, dry conditions into next Thursday with cooler than normal
temperatures Saturday through Tuesday. Some elevated/gusty southwest
to west winds will occur during the afternoons Saturday into Monday.
Saturday the winds may be strong enough for local and brief critical
fire weather conditions in far southeast Cochise County and northern
Greenlee County. Also, some thunderstorms are possible again far
eastern areas late next week.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ504-
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