FXUS65 KTWC 270952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
252 AM MST Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions through Friday except for a few
thunderstorms this afternoon southeast of Tucson. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will then return mainly east to south of
Tucson by early next week. Seasonably hot daytime temperatures
will prevail into this weekend.


.DISCUSSION...As high pressure shifts south and southwest of the
area, we will see a drier westerly flow along with temperatures
slowly falling closer to average values for late June. Today much
like yesterday, with temperatures below excessive heat levels, but
still several degrees above average.

Still a little mainly mid level moisture in the atmosphere, but
precipitable water values will start to slip below 1 inch today,
while surface dew points mix into the 30s or even upper 20s later
this afternoon.

The trends in western Mexico are continuing upward over the past
24 hours. We need the high to shift into a more open position to
our east, and signs are that will happen early next week. That
should in turn reintroduce easterly wave activity at a higher
latitude across Mexico and support deeper moisture intrusions.
Thunderstorm trends will be up early next week, but it's unclear
how far north things will progress. A fairly safe bet that at
least portions of Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties will see
activity return by Sunday.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 28/12Z.
SKC-FEW clouds at 10-15k ft AGL from KTUS west, and FEW-SCT clouds
at 8-12k ft AGL east and south of KTUS thru the forecast period.
Isolated SHRA/TSRA this afternoon near the Int'l border including
KDUG and KOLS. SFC wind variable at less than 12 kts this morning.
SFC wind this afternoon 12-16 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts possible,
especially at KTUS/KSAD. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms across the southern portion
of Fire Weather Zone 152 this afternoon. Dry conditions are then
expected area-wide through Friday, with isolated to scattered
convection returning to a few spots Saturday into early next week.
Breezy west to northwest 20-ft winds of 15 to 20 mph are likely
during the afternoon hours through Thursday, especially in the upper
Gila River Valley. Speeds will then generally remain less than 15
mph into early next week. However, periods of erratic gustiness may
occur due to strong daytime heating and/or thunderstorm outflows.






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