FXUS65 KTWC 120414
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST THU MAR 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
AREAS EAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ANOTHER WARMUP DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO MT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST
THE NEXT 36 HRS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE CAN SEE THE
BEGINNING OF THIS RIDGE AS 5 DEG C WARMING ABOVE 750 MB ON THE 00Z
KTWC SOUNDING. THINGS ARE QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
EVENING AS CURRENT IR IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z GFS MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING THRU NORTHEAST ARIZONA ON SUNDAY IS SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MODEL IS NOT AGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH RESPECT TO THE WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IN ANY EVENT...GIVEN THIS TRACK...THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN SAT...THEN TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUN
MORNING. THE 11/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO
MOVING THIS SYSTEM SWD ESSENTIALLY ADJACENT THE AZ/NM BORDER SUN.
HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS PROJECTED
PATH...OR ACROSS WRN NEW MEXICO...VERSUS THE ECMWF. AT ANY
RATE...WILL DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW GENERALLY EAST OF A SAFFORD-BISBEE LINE SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WWD THE MAIN IMPACT MAY BE SOME
BREEZES SUN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. WILL OPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER MON
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AREAWIDE MON
NIGHT-THUR AS UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL OVER THE WRN CONUS.
WARMER FRI AND SAT FOLLOWED BY SOME COOLING SUN. WARMER MON WITH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TUE-THUR.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...THEN WLY/NWLY
8-18 KTS DURING THE 19Z-23Z PERIOD FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





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