FXUS65 KTWC 061654
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 AM MST SAT SEP 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS MOVING NWWD ACROSS FAR WRN PIMA
COUNTY. DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE MID 40S-LOWER 50S AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY 2-5 DEGS LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS
VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THIS TIME FRI. 06/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING DEPICTED A FAIRLY DRY PROFILE...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE
NEAR 0.60 INCH. ELY FLOW IN THE SURFACE-500 MB LAYER WITH WLY FLOW
ABOVE 500 MB.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST EXPECTED TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAINLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA SUN AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AT
LEAST. INHERITED GRIDDED DATA FIELDS DEPICT LOW-GRADE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD JUSTIFY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE MON-WED PERIOD. THEREAFTER...
NWP SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A
CUT-OFF LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY-MON...THEN SOME COOLING DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE 19Z-03Z PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
Back to Main Forecast Discussion Page |
