FXUS65 KTWC 180943
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
243 AM MST Fri Jan 18 2019
.SYNOPSIS...A passing weather system north of the area will bring a
chance of light valley rain and mountain snow early this morning
well northeast of Tucson. Strong warming over the weekend will give
way to another system early next week. This will cause below normal
to normal temperatures, but leave southern Arizona dry.
.DISCUSSION...A weather system continued to pass north of the area
early this morning. Regional radar imagery detected a few showers
associated with the system well northeast of Tucson, mainly near the
White Mountains. Latest models track this system east of the area
this afternoon. The system will also bring some gusty winds from the
northwest to the Upper Gila River valley around Safford this
afternoon. Otherwise, expect clearing skies by this evening in the
wake of the system. A ridge of high pressure aloft will build over
the region tonight and remain over the area this weekend. This will
result in a warming trend with high temperatures peaking about 8 to
12 degrees above normal on Sunday. This warming trend will be
followed by a cool down early next week as another system passes
through northern Arizona. This system will bring another bout of
gusty winds Monday afternoon.
.AVIATION...Valid through 19/12Z.
For much of southeast Arizona, SCT-BKN clouds at 4k-8k ft AGL and
BKN-OVC clouds AOA 18k ft AGL into the evening hours tonight. Over
portions of Graham and Greenlee counties, cloud bases at 2k-5k ft
AGL with isolated to scattered -SHRA and local MVFR conditions,
especially near the mountains. Aft 19/04Z, -SHRA ending and lower
clouds dissipating, with BKN-OVC high clouds AOA 18k ft AGL
persisting through the rest of the forecast period. Surface wind
generally less than 10 kts thru the morning hours, becoming NWLY at
10-20 kts in the afternoon with higher gusts. The strongest surface
wind will be near the NM border and in the upper Gila River Valley
near KSAD. Surface wind slowly diminishing aft 19/03Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...A storm system passing to the north will result in a
chance of valley rain and mountain snow northeast of Tucson and
especially in the White Mountains into the evening hours tonight.
Gusty northwest winds will also occur this afternoon and early
evening east of Tucson and especially in the the upper Gila River
Valley near Safford. Expect sustained winds peaking at 15-25 mph
with gusts to 30-35 mph. Dry conditions are then expected Saturday
into Tuesday morning, with a slight chance of showers in the White
Mountains during the day Tuesday. Elevated east to southeast winds
may occur Saturday and Sunday. Breezy west to southwest winds return
Monday afternoon. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be under 15 mph.
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