FXUS65 KTWC 182109
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
209 PM MST Mon Mar 18 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with warmer temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday. Expect gusty winds at times this week. A storm system
should bring isolated to scattered showers and cooler temperatures
during the latter part of the upcoming week.
.DISCUSSION...There will be a slight chance of showers in the White
Mountains early this evening. Otherwise, dry weather and warmer
daytime temperatures can be anticipate as a ridge of high pressure
aloft builds over the region Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Thereafter, the ridge weakens and shifts east of the area as a storm
system enters California and tracks into the Great Basin region on
Thursday. The tail end of this system will impact southeast Arizona
in terms of breezy conditions Wednesday along with increasing
chances of showers by Thursday morning. The best chance of
precipitation will be Wednesday night and early Thursday, especially
in the mountains east and northeast of Tucson. A few showers will
linger in the mountains on Friday before another ridge of high
pressure aloft amplifies over the region this weekend.
.AVIATION...Valid through 20/00Z.
Generally SCT cumulus cloud coverage at 7-10k ft AGL will persist
into the early evening with skies then becoming SKC. A slight chance
of -SHRA is possible into the early evening across the White
Mountains. Surface winds with a generally easterly component at
around 10-15 kts will continue this afternoon before diminishing
overnight. Mainly light winds Tuesday afternoon with typical diurnal
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...A slight chance of a shower is possible across
the White Mountains into this evening. Drier air will move into the
area on Tuesday along with even warmer temperatures through mid
week. Light winds this afternoon and Tuesday will give way to
increased speeds on Wednesday as a weather system passes to our
north. This weather system will result in scattered showers as early
as Wednesday afternoon north and east of Tucson with these showers
persisting into Thursday as cooler temperatures move in. A drying
trend will commence Friday, though a few showers are possible in the
higher terrain east of Tucson. A few showers may still persist in
the White Mountains through the weekend with dry conditions
elsewhere and typical afternoon breezes.
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