FXUS63 KUNR 182014

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
214 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Water vapor shows upper wave diving south across southern SASK
with upper ridge over the Pac NW. Weak radar echoes over ND with
associated short wave but only a few ob sites showing precip
reaching the ground. Flooding issues due to snowmelt/ice jams
across southwest and south central SD continue (see hydrology
section below).

Short wave and associated light precip will cross the area
overnight into early Tuesday morning, but with limited moisture
any accums should remain low. Best chance for any accums would be
across the northern Black Hills with weak upslope signature in

Dry wx with continued warming into the end of the work week still
expected. Have bumped up temps a few more degrees, with Thursday
likely being the warmest day where some readings into the 60s
possible especially on the eastern slopes of the Black Hills.

Models in decent agreement with upper trof/closed low moving
through the rockies into the plains for the weekend, though
differ in coverage/intensity of precipitation. Temps likely warm
enough for more rain than snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1147 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers are expected to
develop tonight, mainly across northwest SD. MVFR conditions will
be possible with the precipitation. Otherwise, VFR conditions can
be expected through tonight and Tuesday morning.


Issued at 153 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Snowmelt and ice jam flooding ongoing across southwest/south
central SD (see current Flood Warning/Advisory products).
Conditions likely to continue and possibly worsen through at least
the end of this week as temps warm even further.




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