FXUS65 KVEF 120416 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
815 PM PST THU MAR 11 2010
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING WITH IT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER. FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER STORM
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS STORM
WILL BRING LOWER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
&&
.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ON A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE ONE THAT MOVED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
LINCOLN/NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT SATURDAY. MODELS DEPICTING STRONG
PREFRONTAL WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT WITH EVEN STRONGER POST
FRONTAL WINDS ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. NO UPDATE THIS
EVENING AS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE KEY FEATURE
TODAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE WE HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE TO EACH OTHER IN HANDLING THE LOW AS IT TRANSITS THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
11/18Z NAM12 HAS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ON THIS SYSTEM AND WAS
PRETTY MUCH DISREGARDED. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS IS LIMITED AND PRIMARILY GOING TO BE ON THE NORTH OR EAST
SIDES OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE
EASTERN SIERRA SHOULD EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION SHADOWING.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA COULD HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DO NOT SHOW THE PARAMETERS FOR A DOWNSLOPE EVENT. WILL LET NEXT TWO
SHIFTS LOOK AT NEWER MODEL RUNS TO DECIDE IF A WATCH OR ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY MORNING OR IF A DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL EXISTS.
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY ARE SHOWN TO HAVE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY MORNING BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
ELSEWHERE THE USUAL AREAS...WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND MORONGO
BASIN...AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS WILL
HAVE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. SUNDAY BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
WIND OR HIGHER ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS DOWN THE RIVER ZONES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE AREA WILL CLEAR QUICKLY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA AND
LEAVES US IN DRY AND COOLER NORTH FLOW.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LAS VEGAS AND DEATH VALLEY LOOKING AT 80+
AND 90+ DEGREES RESPECTIVELY BY WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE IN THE MEAN
FLOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS TO OUR REGION
UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN IMPACTS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE
BREEZY/WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESULTS IN A
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AREAWIDE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/JACQUES/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
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