FXUS65 KVEF 270927

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
227 AM PDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS....A strong disturbance will swing through the region
from the north on Friday and will bring another round of gusty
north or northwest winds. Watching the potential for strong winds
down the Colorado River Valley Friday into Saturday. After a
cooler pattern Friday and Saturday, a warming trend will commence
Sunday as the disturbance pushes east. Dry conditions and the
warming trend will continue into the beginning of next week.

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night.

Winds will continue to impact the area through the first part of
the weekend as a strong low digs south into the Southwest. Didnt
make too much in the way of changes to the previous forecast with
winds on Friday or Saturday. Models disagree as to exactly how
strong winds will be Friday afternoon into Saturday. Guidance is
higher than overall hi res model output, however guidance has
been decreasing with each model run. 850mb and 700mb winds actual
decrease through the day on Friday as the center of the low
pressure system pushes southward. However, synopticly speaking,
this is a rather strong system with a good slug of forcing...and
this is a favorable set for wind enhancement through the Colorado
River Valley...so the stronger winds advertised by guidance
aren't out of the question. Given the amount of uncertainty that
remains with wind gusts, continued with the high wind watch for
the time being.

The good news is that winds should slowly diminish Saturday
evening through Sunday as the system pulls away, and lighter winds
finally return for the second half of the weekend.

Precipitation from this disturbance will be confined to parts of
Lincoln County on Friday. Just a slight chance of precip is
expected as the better forcing doesn't match up with the higher
low level moisture.

Temperatures will cool off for Friday and the beginning of the weekend
behind a cold front moving through the area later today. Dropped
high temperatures slightly Friday and Saturday per guidance
trends, which is supported by the fairly good shot of cold air
advection. Was able to bring up high temps on Sunday though as
models have gone much warmer at 850mb. With very little cloud
cover, the area should warm up quickly for the second half of the

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.

Good model agreement is leading to fairly high confidence in the
forecast for the long term. A dry northwest flow will persist over
the forecast area Sunday through Wednesday with strong high pressure
just off the California Coast. Temperatures will warm from near
normal Sunday to 5 or so degrees above normal for Monday through
Wednesday. Some northerly breezes will stick around through the
period but overall not expecting anything near wind advisory

.AVIATION...For McCarran...A frontal boundary currently situated
over the northern portions of the Las Vegas Valley will gradually
push through the airport bringing a northwest flow. This is expected
to occur between 11z-13z this morning. Winds may gust to 15 kts at
times after passage. Winds will likely remain northwest through the
remainder of the afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts at times.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Northwest flow over much of the area today with winds
up to 25 kts. Winds may gust near 35 kts across Esmeralda and
central Nye Counties during the afternoon. West winds up to 35 kts
will occur over western portions of San Bernardino County. Much
stronger north winds possible Friday and Saturday. Skies should
generally consist of only scattered high clouds.

.FIRE WEATHER...Overall, dry and breezy conditions are expected the
next several days. The exception will be a chance of showers over
northeast Lincoln County Friday as an upper level low pressure
system develops over Utah. Precipitation amounts will likely be
fairly light. Northerly winds will become pretty strong Friday into
Saturday, especially down the Colorado River Valley. The strong
winds combined with low relative humidities will result in a period
of critical fire weather Friday and Saturday along the Colorado
River Valley and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for this
potential. Improving conditions are expected Sunday as wind speeds
decrease but low humidities will persist.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating


LONG TERM....Harrison

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