FXUS65 KVEF 240358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
858 PM PDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Area of light showers across southeastern Nevada and northwestern
Arizona will dissipate this evening as a storm system exits the
area to the east. Dry conditions are expected tonight and Friday
before the next system approaches the region Friday night into
Saturday ushering in the next chances for rain and snow showers
and periods of gusty winds. Unsettled weather is expected through
the the first half of next week.

.UPDATE....Isolated showers and associated clouds have all but
dissipated over Mohave and Clark County this evening. Updated to
reduce POPs and sky cover the rest of this evening.

Shortwave ridge will quickly transition over the region
tonight/first half of Friday. Light showers should break out along
the southern Sierra Crest Friday afternoon. As upper trough
progresses further inland Friday night look for more showers to
develop within a band running from about Barstow-Beatty-Ely.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Variable direction overnight through
Friday morning with speeds running between 4-7kts. Winds will become
more east-southeasterly Friday afternoon with speeds 8-12 kts. Clear
skies overnight with high clouds increasing Friday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds should become light and variable by Friday
morning. Winds are expected to shift to the south/southwest and
become gusty Friday evening ahead of next approaching system.
Increasing high clouds through the period with lower clouds
developing along the southern Sierra Crest leading to light showers
Friday afternoon.

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 PM PDT Thu Mar 23 2017
.SHORT TERM...through Saturday night.

The area of light showers that is currently affecting Clark,
Mohave, and eastern Lincoln counties is expected push southeastward
out of the local area this evening as trough progresses towards
the Midwest. Isolated thunder will be possible this afternoon
across northeast Mohave county where the best available moisture
and some limited instability are in place. Ridging will briefly
build over the area tonight and Friday ahead of the next
approaching Pacific system that is expected to pass through this
weekend. Next chance for precipitation will move in ahead of this
feature along the Sierra on Friday afternoon before scattered
showers begin affecting the southern Great Basin and San
Bernardino county overnight Friday into early Saturday. Gusty,
southwesterly winds will begin Friday afternoon with widespread
gusts of 25-30 mph possible across the lower elevations. Precip
chances increase area wide through late Saturday morning as trough
passes through the region as an open wave. Highest rainfall
totals will be across the southern Great Basin with 0.25 inches or
less expected. Snows levels should remain at 8000' or above with
no significant accumulations expected through the weekend. Temperatures
remain around seasonal norms through early next week.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday. Models are slowly starting to
converge toward a common solution, but confidence remains below
average until this trend persists for another run or two. Our area
will briefly be under dirty shortwave ridging on Sunday before the
next storm system reaches the West Coast, spreading precip chances
over much of the region (especially north of Las Vegas) on Monday.
There is still model spread on how quickly to move the storm away,
with the ECMWF still in the faster camp and the GFS still in the
slower camp. The ECMWF has begun to trend a bit closer to the GFS in
this run, but as noted above, would like to see this trend persist
before jumping on it. Precip chances may linger in the eastern zones
on Tuesday if the slower camp verifies. Gusty north winds look like
a decent bet Monday night and Tuesday, and possibly through
Wednesday if the slower camp verifies. Temperatures will stay
somewhere near normal for late March, with well below normal temps
possible in areas which get rain and/or opaque clouds much of the
day Monday and/or Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating



Long Term...Morgan
Short Term/Aviation...Guillet

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