FXUS65 KVEF 271005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
305 AM PDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Dry, breezy weather is expected through late this week as
temperatures continue a slow downward trend back towards seasonal


.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

A series of weak impulses will pass to our northeast across the
Great Basin through mid week as high pressure flattens out to our
south. This will allow for the continued downward trend in
temperatures each day and breezy conditions each afternoon. Gusts
will be around 25 mph in most areas with some gusts of 30-35 mph
possible across the Mojave Desert. A very dry airmass over the
region will leave skies clear and chances for rain near zero.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

A persistent dry forecast with seasonal temperatures is the story
through the weekend into early next week with no clear sign of the
door opening for monsoonal moisture to make its way into our region.
A ridge over Nevada Friday is forecast to be pushed to the east
Saturday as a weak Pacific trough moves inland over California and
western Nevada. The medium range models indicate this trough will
park near southern California Sunday through Tuesday producing a dry
southwest flow over our region. This will lead to afternoon south-
southwest winds of 10-20 mph and near normal temperatures. Meanwhile
the North American monsoonal pattern starts to take shape Monday and
Tuesday as a ridge begins to become established a little east of the
Four Corners region. This should begin to draw moisture up from
Mexico over eastern Arizona and New Mexico and it is the time of
year when we will have to watch for subtle changes in the weak
synoptic flow that will allow moisture to head our way.



Dry conditions and breezy winds will create marginal critical fire
weather conditions across the Mojave Desert today and tomorrow
afternoon. A few spots could see winds of around 20 mph this
afternoon across central and southern Mohave County and across
western San Bernardino County but this should be short-lived so
have not gone with any fire weather warnings. Wednesday seems like a
better bet to reach critical durations across the same areas but
with winds still being marginal have held off on any watches/warnings
for now. Otherwise, most areas will see west to southwesterly gusts
of 20-25 mph each afternoon.



Observed flows on unregulated creeks, specifically
Independence Creek, Big Pine Creek and Rock Creek indicated flows
have decreased slightly since their peak flows occurred earlier this
week. Creeks, streams and rivers along the eastern Sierra slopes of
Inyo County as well as the Owens Valley will be flowing high and
fast through into at least the middle of this week. Minor
flooding could occur near creeks as well as a few low water
crossings on some roadways. Remember, never drive through flooded
roadways or around barricades. Also, pastureland or farmland
adjacent to creeks, streams or rivers could experience areas of
standing water.


.AVIATION...For McCarran...A east-southeast wind component
generally less than 7 knots can be expected from mid morning through
mid afternoon then a southwest wind gusting around 20 knots should
develop after 23Z and persist much of the evening. Clear sky through
the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Variable winds generally less than 15 knots this
morning will increase from the southwest 10-20 knots this afternoon
across most of the region. Gusts around 30 knots will occur over the
western Mojave Desert near KDAG. Clear sky through the period.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating



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