FXUS65 KVEF 050950
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
150 AM PST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE A PACIFIC STORM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
JUST A FEW CIRRUS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY CHILLY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA HAD DEVELOPED FARTHER WEST THAN
PROJECTED...WHICH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER TOMORROW WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. TUESDAY
IS STILL THE DAY OF CONCERN WITH THE PACIFIC STORM COMING ONSHORE.
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE INCOMING TROUGH TO SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN
PIECE HEADING FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE SOUTHERN PIECE DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR OUR
AREA. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD REMAINS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL NAM
AND GFS MOVING THE LOW FARTHER EAST AND SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH
MUCH OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM JUST BRUSH THE WESTERN
ZONES WITH PRECIP AS THE LOW DIVES SOUTH OFF THE COAST. BELIEVE THE
ECMWF/GEM CAMP WILL BE CLOSER TO REALITY...AND KEPT PRECIP CHANCES
PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE CALIFORNIA ZONES. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
BE BLANKETED WITH HIGH CLOUDS DESPITE THE LACK OF PRECIP CHANCES IF
THE ECMWF IS RIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF WHICH
HAS REMAINED THE MOST CONSISTENT AND DRIEST MODEL FOR OUR CWA KEEPS
ANY MOISTURE WEST WHILE THE GFS HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE AS FAR WEST AS
SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS AND EVEN THE
00Z/06Z ALSO SHOWS THIS. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT GHOST POPS IN THE
GRIDS AS ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE MODELS INDICATE PACKING OF THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATE
FEATURE INTO SATURDAY...BUT MAY GET PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. THE EXTENDED MODELS ALL SHOW A TROUGH APPROACHING BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THERE IS
BETTER CONSENSUS IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...MCCARRAN...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 7KTS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AND WILL VARY BETWEEN A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. A FEW CLOUDS AT 12K FEET WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN AROUND 18Z AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS OF 5-10KTS EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-28 KTS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AROUND 10-12K
FEET MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN/GORELOW

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS



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