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FXUS65 KVEF 152101
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
201 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather disturbance will bring increased
chances for shower and thunderstorm activity to the Southern Great
Basin and Sierra region through Monday. Generally dry conditions
are expected elsewhere. The entire area will dry out by early next
week with typical warm June temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered cumulus build ups are quite apparent on
visible satellite this afternoon but thus far warm mid level
temperatures have stifled any deeper vertical development across
the region. Expect this to remain the case through the evening
hours, although a weak shortwave approaching central California
will likely be enough to spark a few showers across Esmeralda
county by late afternoon. These showers will then traverse east
across central Nye and Lincoln county overnight.

More widespread showers are expected Sunday across our northern
tier zones where a mid level disturbance and some lingering
moisture will promote scattered shower and thunderstorm activity.
Greatest coverage will be across Lincoln county, and perhaps the
northern parts of Inyo county. Rainfall will be fairly light given
the dry subcloud layer, but strong and gusty outflow winds will be
possible. Outside of our northern zones, shower activity will be
minimal if any. However, a few of the higher resolution models
suggest the potential for some gusty outflow winds potentially
reaching as far south as Las Vegas by late evening, so that will
be something worth keeping an eye on.

A few residual showers may linger into Monday as a weak low sits
over the area, again mainly favoring our northern zones. However,
drier conditions should arrive by Tuesday and last the remainder
of the week as a more zonal flow takes hold of the country. This
will result in continued warmth, as you would expect in mid June,
and frequent afternoon breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds are expected to remain light and
variable through the early evening and favor a southwesterly
direction overnight. Scattered altocumulus around 15 kft will linger
through the afternoon and evening before it is replaced with high
cirrus tonight. On Sunday, light winds during the morning will give
way to southwesterly winds in the early afternoon. Speeds are
expected to be 12-17 knots with gusts near 25 knots. A few
thundershowers may develop over the mountains tomorrow; strong
outflows not out of the question in the afternoon/evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light winds are expected across the region through the
evening. Cumulus between 12-16 kft will linger through the evening,
eventually being replaced with scattered to broken cirrus overnight.
Another weather disturbance will increase southerly winds on Sunday
with gusts between 20-35 knots possible in the afternoon. In
addition to the winds, scattered thunderstorms will develop across
the southern Great Basin Sunday afternoon, mainly impacting KBIH;
however, gusty outflows will be possible across southern Nevada as
well.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Boothe

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