FXUS65 KVEF 060332 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
832 PM PDT Fri Jun 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will lift across Southern
California to the Four Corners region tonight with gusty south
winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of the
area. A broad area of low pressure will then move over the
western states this weekend into early next week resulting in
breezy to windy conditions and significant cooling. Seasonal
temperatures are expected by mid week.
.UPDATE...Between 3-5 pm over northeast Clark and Mohave Counties
virga, DCAPE and strong gradient winds combined to produce some peak
wind gusts nearing 55 mph. Strongest I saw was 54 mph from Mesquite
CEMP weather station. Even though radar continues to show some weak
returns over northwest area don't expect those type of gusts the
rest of this evening as DCAPE as decreased in that area.
As upper trough swings inland over the area tonight best
forcing and instability should keep some showers and isolated
thunderstorms going across northern Inyo and Esmeralda Counties.
Allowed the lake wind advisory and red flag warning to expire at 8
However, winds will continue to be a concern this weekend across the
high desert of San Bernardino County, as well as in the lee of the
southern Sierra. Models indicate a tight surface pressure gradients
developing across those area Saturday due to pressure falls over the
Great Basin Saturday ahead of stronger incoming trough. Winds likely
will continue to blow across parts of San Bernardino County into
Sunday evening. With the update am going to issue a Wind Advisory
for those parts of eastern California.
.SHORT TERM...Saturday through Monday.
A low pressure system currently near the SoCal coast is forecast
to move across southern California into northwest Arizona tonight
just clipping far southern Nevada on its way by. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through the evening hours mainly
over the northwest CWA then across southcentral Nevada overnight
as the low weakens and lifts into Utah. Shortwave energy
associated with a low pressure system off the PacNW coast is
forecast to eject inland into northern California on Saturday
resulting in an increasing chance of showers and storms across
southcentral Nevada with lingering chances over northern Lincoln
County Saturday night. This will result in milder conditions over
the region Saturday with temperatures forecast to be around 5
degrees below normal or around 90 degrees in Las Vegas. In
addition to the cooler temperatures, windy conditions will develop
across much of the area late Saturday morning and continue
through the early evening. The strongest winds, which could be
near advisory level, are expected in the Western Mojave Desert.
The low off the PacNW coast Saturday is forecast to move across
the Great Basin Saturday night through Sunday night and then into
the Intermountain Region on Monday. This will continue the cooling
trend which will send temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal
Sunday and Monday. We will likely see breezy to windy conditions
both days with the strongest winds expected across western San
Bernardino County Sunday and along the Colorado River Valley
Tuesday through Friday...
Temperatures will begin rebounding Tuesday and continue climbing
back to above normal by the middle of the week under zonal flow
transitioning to a ridge over the region. However, models
ensembles indicate this ridge amplifies ahead of yet another broad
trough moving into the western states next weekend leading to
increasing southwest winds Friday.
.FIRE WEATHER...The Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire.
Any wetting rains will occur over northern Inyo and Esmeralda
Counties tonight. Breezy to windy conditions will continue each
afternoon Saturday and Sunday along with temperatures cooling 20-25
degrees as a broad trough digs over the western states.
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty south to southeast winds are
expected to remain in place through much of the remainder of the
afternoon. Wind direction is expected to remain between 140-170
degrees before becoming more southerly this evening. Wind speeds are
expected to remain around 18-28, but decrease to around 10-12 kts
overnight. Wind speeds will increase once again Saturday, but the
direction is expected to be southwest during the day, generally
around 21-240 degrees. Wind speeds also expected to be around 15-25
kts. FEW140 expected into this evening followed by SCT-BKN200-250
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Afternoon thunderstorms over the Sierra Crest may
wander off the mountains and across the Owens Valley bringing gusty
outflow winds. VFR conditions persisting with bases remaining above
12 Kft for most, though lower bases down to 8 Kft possible with
thunderstorm activity on the Sierra and Owens Valley. Any activity
that does develop will wane after sunset. South to southeast winds
over most areas with speeds 20-30 kts with some locations seeing
gusts between 35-40 kts. Winds are expected to diminish somewhat
overnight, but will once again increase Saturday with most areas
seeing southwest to west winds between 20-30 kts.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
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