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FXUS65 KVEF 242157
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
257 PM PDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will bring gusty winds and cooler
temperatures to the area Friday and Saturday. Through the holiday
weekend, shower and thunderstorm activity will likely remain across
the southern Great Basin as well as the higher elevations of Clark.
Dry conditions and warming temperatures are expected next week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Wednesday.

Water vapor imagery shows a broad cyclonic circulation about 300
miles west of the San Francisco Bay area. This system will bring
unsettled weather to the region over the Memorial Day weekend. The
main concerns will be wind impacts especially across area lakes,
especially Lake Mead where increased traffic, gusty winds, and
increased wave heights.

The upper low will begin to close off overnight Thursday as it moves
toward the California coast. By Friday, the low will push across
central California. As it does, gradients will tighten and increase
southerly winds across the region. The strongest winds will be
focused across the western Mojave Desert where a Wind Advisory is in
place. A Lake Wind Advisory is also in effect for Friday, as gusty
winds develop late morning and through the afternoon. Strong winds
leading to waves as high as 3 feet at times will create hazardous
boating conditions. Elsewhere, breezy winds are expected with gusts
up to 35 mph possible. Winds will diminish Friday night. Breezy winds,
but lighter than Friday, should materialize Saturday. Light winds
will return Sunday and continue through at least Wednesday across
the forecast area.

As the low pushes onshore Friday precip chances will increase over
the east Sierra and Owens Valley. Rain chances will slowly expand
eastward as the low cruises across the Great Basin Saturday. Energy
rotating around the low as it wobble along the Nevada/Utah border
will keep at least mentionable chances for our northern zones
through the weekend. Best precip chances over the weekend will be
mainly across Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye, and Lincoln Counties.
Slight chances for mountain showers in the Spring and Sheep ranges
exist Saturday and Sunday as marginal mid-level moisture rotates
down the backside of the low. Slow northeastward progression of the
low Monday will leave slight chance PoPs across northern Lincoln
county with dry conditions expected elsewhere. The low will be
kicked to the northeast by the next system on Tuesday. Outside of
the Sierra, dry conditions are likely during the Monday and
Wednesday period.

Temperatures will drop significantly as the low moves into the
region with low 80s forecast for Las Vegas on Saturday. Warming
temperatures are expected Sunday onward as we may begin to approach
triple digits again by Wednesday.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An incoming low pressure system will increase winds
and usher in cool temperatures on Friday and Saturday. The strongest
winds across the Mojave Desert are expected Friday. Critical
relative humidities will be limited to Mohave County and the fire
weather zones that border the Colorado River. Winds over those
exceptionally dry areas will range between 15-25 mph with gusts up
to 30 mph on Friday. With gusty winds, dangerous fire weather
conditions are possible Friday. This has prompted a Fire Weather
Watch for fire weather zones 102 and 101 in Arizona and 466 in
Nevada. Winds will decrease Saturday limiting conditions conducive
to rapid fire growth.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southeast wind early should shift more
southerly overnight. Sustained winds will be 10-12 kts with gusts up
to 20 kts at times. Southwest winds start increasing Friday morning,
peak in strength Friday afternoon and evening. Sustained winds
generally between 15-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts. Mechanical
turbulence developing near higher terrain this evening and
continuing through the period as winds aloft strengthen. VFR
conditions through the forecast period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Persistent south-southwest wind expected to continue
overnight before strengthening Friday. Widespread gusts 30-35 kts
with locally higher gusts 35-40 kts expected around KDAG. There is a
slight chance for thunderstorms near the southern Sierra Nevada,
Owens Valley and White Mountains of northwest Inyo county Friday.
Mechanical turbulence developing near higher terrain this evening
and continuing through the period as winds aloft strengthen.
VFR conditions through the forecast period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Boothe
AVIATION..................Pierce

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