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FXAK69 PAFG 052232
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
232 PM AKDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.Synopsis...Scattered to isolated thunderstorms and showers from
the Arctic Plain to the Interior, and inland areas of the West
Coast during the afternoons and evenings through the weekend.
Thunderstorms and showers will hang on well into the evening in
the Western Interior and Western Arctic Plain. Thunderstorms may
produce small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Strongest
winds will be on the Eastern Arctic Coast at 20 to 30 mph. The
remainder of the forecast area will have generally light and
variable winds. The Central and Eastern Arctic Coast will remain
cloudy with low stratus and some patchy fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 05/12Z solutions show good run to run continuity in
the short term, and have come into better agreement in the
extended periods as they moved toward the previous GFS solution.
Surface solutions initialized well against the 05/15Z analysis,
some minor pressure and location differences, but overall not bad
with the rather benign pattern over the area. Lifted Index to -5
over most of the state today, with CAPE values to 1200 J/kg. Will
use a blend for the winds with the weak pressure pattern over the
state. Temperatures more dependent on cloud and shower coverage
during the afternoon will be difficult to pinpoint areas that
might be cooler, so will lean on the solutions and make only minor
tweaks. Upper level low moving over the state next Wednesday could
bring some rather cool temperatures to the forecast area as it
pulls the 0C isotherm south.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging continues over northern Alaska with
a 560 dam high that has moved to about 300 nm north of Deadhorse
this afternoon. Ridging extends south over the Anaktuvuk Pass to
Nikolai to Kodiak Island. Ridging also extends southwest just
north of Wrangel Island, and east over the Canadian Archipelago.
Troughing extends from a 548 dam low over the Northwest
Territories southwest over Tok. Troughing also lies from a 548
dam low over the Northern Bering Sea to a 545 dam low just north
of Nunivak Island and over the King Salmon. By Saturday afternoon
the high over the Arctic will be 200 nm north of Oliktok Point
with the ridging extending southwest to the Seward Peninsula,
while the low over the Northwest Territories will back over Old
Crow YT with a trough extending southwest over Healy. Troughing
over the Bering Sea will slide southeast to with a 546 dam low
near Nunivak Island, a 545 dam low over Bristol Bay, and trough
extending southeast over Kodiak Island. A trough will move over
the Western Chukchi Sea with a 552 dam low 100 nm east of Wrangel
Island. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm has moved back over the Lower
Yukon Delta Coast and lies from Bethel to Nome to Gambell. By
Saturday afternoon it will lie from King Salmon to Emmonak to
Gambell, and Sunday it will be pulled south of the 60N. The 0C
isotherm remain north of the Arctic Coast. Temperatures over the
remainder of the forecast area range up to +8C. A dome of warmer
air will move over the Upper Tanana Valley during the day Saturday
then moderate Saturday night.

Surface...High pressure will continue over the Central and
Eastern Arctic as a 1029 mb high wobbles around near Banks Island
through Saturday afternoon then drifts east. High pressure extends
west across the Arctic to 170W. Weak inverted troughing will
persist over the Western Arctic with a 1017 mb low near Wrangel
Island and troughing extending south over the Chukchi Sea to a
1015 mb low over the Seward Peninsula. Thermal troughing over the
Arctic Plain will persist, as will thermal troughing over the
northern Interior extending northwest over the Upper Kobuk and
Noatak Basins. The thermal trough in the Interior will shift to
the north slopes of the Alaska Range. Sunday night the ridging
over the Arctic will retreat to the east as an Arctic front moves
to the Dateline, then to the Northwest Arctic Coast Monday
morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Along the coast east of Point
Lay, not expecting much change a large area of stratus extends
east over the Canadian Archipelago and the east flow will just
keep brining it over the area. Some flurries of sprinkles with the
stratus and patchy fog. Inland partly to mostly cloudy with some
isolated thunderstorms in the Southern Plains and Brooks Range.
Winds northeast to east at 15 to 25 mph and gusty along the coast
extending inland about 30 miles. Lighter winds to the south at 5
to 15 mph. High temperatures in the lower 30s from Utqiagvik
east along the coast, and 40s and 50s inland and and from Point
Lay southwest with the offshore flow. Minimum temperatures will
generally be in the 30s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Isolated to scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms in most of the inland areas will
continue through the weekend. Cloudy with areas of fog along the
coast where lows along the inverted trough have turned flow
onshore. Winds variable to 15 mph. not much change in temperatures
through the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...Not much change from the last
couple days. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms and showers
during the afternoons and evenings. Patchy morning fog. Highs in
the mid 60s to mid 70s with overnight lows in the 40s to lower
50s. Winds variable to 10 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...No concerns at this time.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Looking to be pretty seasonal
weather for June with afternoon thunderstorms and showers in the
Interior from the Nulato Hills east. A upper level low dropping
south out of the Arctic may bring some enhanced showers to the
West Coast, but solutions are not all together on that at this
time. A few showers in the Arctic as a front moves east across the
area Monday and Tuesday, then a return to onshore flow as high
pressure over over the Central Arctic midweek.

&&

.Fire Weather...Winds remain light and variable except near
showers and thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
and showers will be the trend through the weekend. Temperatures
will be pretty steady. Expect some patchy morning fog, mainly in
areas that get showers. Thunderstorm and shower movement will
generally be north to south. Relative Humidity trend through the
weekend will be very similar with minimum values ranging from
around 20 percent in the Upper Yukon Flats and vicinity to the 30
to 40 percent range in the Middle and Lower Yukon River Valley.
Overnight recovery will generally be good.

&&

.Hydrology...River is in the West and Interior may see some minor
rises locally as rainfall from the thunderstorms and showers
makes its way into them, but no immediate threats of flooding.
For the latest river and breakup information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB JUN 20
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