FXAK69 PAFG 102257
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
157 PM AKST WED MAR 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...12Z MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON DISPOSITION OF
KEY FEATURES FOR NORTHERN 2/3 AK THROUGH SHORT AND INTO MID-TERM.
NAM THOUGH IS SHOWING BETTER CHANCE OF OVER-RUNNING SNOW FOR
CENTRAL/ERN INTERIOR THOUGH ON THU THAN AK-GFS OR ECMWF. 489 DM OR
SO 500 MB LOW NW OF COOK INLET FOREAST TO WOBBLE INTO NORTHERN
GULF AK THU...THEN LIFT N OVER WRN HALF OF AK FRI/SAT AS RIDGING
AMPLIFIES N ALONG W COAST TO ALCAN BORDER. BY SUN...MILDER BUT
LOW-HEIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED OVER ERN HALF AK.

W COAST: SURFACE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE
LOW OVER SRN ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE OVER NWRN INTERIOR S TO ZONE 212
TONITE/WED. SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THU/FRI AS UPPER
LOW LIFTS N.

N SLOPE: 988 SURFACE LOW THAT IS REMAINS OF LOW THAT MOVED N FROM
GULF AK TUE NOW JUST N OF MACKENZIE BAY. IT IS FORECAST TO ROLL BACK
NW TONITE/THU. WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR BLIZ ZONES 203/204 BUT
ENOUGH FALLING SNOW IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES...SO WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 203/204 TONITE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
WRN ARCTIC TO PABR WILL MISS MOST OF THE EFFECT OF THIS LOW...AS IT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT MUCH FURTHER N LATE THU/FRI.

INTERIOR: WEAKENING 988 MB SURFACE LOW OVER S-CENTRAL AK WILL LIFT
N TONITE/THU...ENDING UP OVER BROOKS RANGE 12Z FRI. THIS WILL BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS FOR 1-2 INCHES OVER-RUNNING SNOW
LATE TONITE/THU FROM ABOUT PABT-PANN-PAIN EAST. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRI AS UPPER LOW LIFTS N. BY SAT/SUN WEAK LOW-HEIGHT RIDGING
WILL BRING MORE CLEARING AND WARMING...AIDED BY STRONGER MARCH
SUN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ213.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

$$

MAR MAR 10


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