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FXAK69 PAFG 222111
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
111 PM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
An unsettled and wet pattern will continue across Northern Alaska
(especially south of the Brooks Range) through this weekend and
into next week. Accumulating snow in the Eastern Brooks Range and
North Slope from the Dalton Highway east is possible this
afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Drier conditions for the west
coast and interior on Thursday and Friday as ridging builds over
the state.

Aloft...At 500 mb, a 532 dam low continues to slowly drift across
the eastern Brooks range this afternoon into Sunday. A 531 dam
low 100 miles north of Nunivak Island will move over Scammon Bay
by midnight tonight, then veer north and weaken over Norton Sound
through Monday morning. Another upper level low will track
northeast and push across Southcentral Alaska and the Alaska
Range through late Monday afternoon and then over the Eastern
Interior through Monday night. From Tuesday morning onward
multiple weak shortwaves will move over Interior Alaska, finally
pushed east by a upper level trough by the middle of next week.

Surface...A 984 mb low just north of Nunivak Island will move
east today and over Scammon Bay by this evening. This low will
drift north into Norton Sound and weaken through early Monday
morning as a 994 mb low. The low in Norton sound will wobble
back to the south again Tuesday morning. Weak lows will develop
over the western and eastern interiors Monday afternoon Leeside
troughing north of the Alaska Range will develop ahead of this low
by Monday morning and persist into Monday evening. A 1014 mb
ridge of high pressure will persist over the Arctic Coast through
Sunday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...An unsettled and showery pattern
will persist over the area through the weekend and into next week
as the low currently northwest of Nunivak Island slowly drifts
north into Norton Sound. Easterly flow will become northeasterly
over Saint Lawrence Island and the northern Bering Sea this
morning with sustained winds between 20 and 30 mph persisting into
Sunday morning before dissipating. As the low drifts into Norton
Sound Sunday night into Monday, north to northeast winds will
increase to 20 to 30 mph. Showers will pick back up again Monday
afternoon into Tuesday. Showers will begin to taper off Wednesday
into Thursday as ridging builds in over the Bering.

Central and Eastern Interior...Winds have dropped below advisory
level this afternoon but will pick back up again Monday morning
and persisting into early Tuesday as another shortwave moves
over the range. Numerous rain showers will continue across the
area through Sunday afternoon. Areas of fog are also possible
across the Middle Tanana Valley Sunday morning. A brief break in
the precipitation is expected Sunday night into Monday morning
before another round of precipitation lifts north over the
Interior. Models are hinting that a ridge of high pressure will
build over the area for Thursday and Friday, bringing an extended
period of dry conditions.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Uppr level low will enhance
the snowfall east of the Dalton Highway this afternoon into
Sunday. Snow will develop over the Eastern Brooks Range and over
the North Slope east of the Dalton Highway by this afternoon and
will continue through Sunday afternoon before tapering off to snow
showers. 24 hour snowfall accumulations 2 to 5 inches, heaviest
east of the Dalton Highway. Areas of fog with visibility below
one mile and low ceilings in stratus will persist along the coast
as high pressure sits off the coast through Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The models
are hinting at an active pattern along the west coast for late
next week into next weekend. It is too far out to single out any
specific impacts; however we will have to continue to watch the
situation.

HYDROLOGY...Rainfall across the west coast and the Interior
will cause some rises in rivers; however, no issues are expected
at the moment.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

$$

JK SEP 18
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