FXAK69 PAFG 180013 CCA
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 17 2017
Aloft...At 500 hpa...Models in agreement through 84 hours. Weak
upper level lows over the Interior will give way to ridging as a
strong front which will develop over the Bering sea by Monday
morning. A 488 dam low will move into the Western Bering Sea and
to the western Gulf of Anadyr by Tuesday morning at 490 dam. A
strong shortwave associated with the low will move to the Eastern
Bering Sea by Monday afternoon, and over the West Coast by Tuesday
morning. Ridging over the interior on Monday will shift to the
east and become a moist southwest flow pattern which will remain
over much of the state through Wednesday. Ridging will build back
over the Interior on Thursday.
Surface...A 950 mb low is moving into the Western Bering Sea
with a weather front moving to the Central Bering Sea and Central
Aleutians this evening. The low will continue E in the Northern
Bering Sea and the weather front will move to St Lawrence Island
Mon afternoon, and to the West Coast and Chukchi Sea Mon evening.
The low center will move near Saint Lawrence Island as 965 mb
Tuesday around 3pm then track up to Wrangell Island as a 977 mb
low Wednesday morning.
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, light snow or flurries,
fog, Blowing snow, and persistent winds of 20 to 30 mph will
continue through Sunday. Winds will diminish a bit Sunday to 10
to 20 mph, and the blowing snow will diminish as the winds come
down and the falling snow tapers off. Temperatures will continue
to cool. The weather front will push across the western north
slope on Tuesday ramping up the winds again out of the southeast
at 15 to 30 mph with snow and blowing snow. Visibility less than
one mile at times.
West Coast and Western Interior...Strong weather system will be
moving to the West Coast and St Lawrence Island Monday and it will
be quite messy with models currently indicating snowfall of 6 to
12 inches, freezing rain in the lower Yukon Delta and on St
Lawrence Island, and winds gusting to 60 mph on St Lawrence
Island and the Bering Strait Coast. Local gusts to 70 mph along
the Bering strait on Monday. Even higher amounts of snow expected
for the upper Kobuk and Noatak valleys as the snow will continue
into Wednesday. Blizzard and winter storm warnings are in effect
for all the west coast zones through Tuesday. Strong southerly
winds and precip will ramp up Monday morning and continue into
Tuesday morning. Snow will then spread inland on Tuesday. After
this system we are watching another potential strong wind and snow
event Wednesday into Thursday for Saint Lawrence Island and the
Seward Penn. Another strong low will move north rapidly west of
Saint Lawrence island. The GFS has 80 kt low level jet max over
the island and Seward Penn Wednesday afternoon. Will continue to
Central and Eastern Interior...Areas of dense freezing fog and
freezing drizzle this afternoon will make roads around the
interior slippery. Light snow is also possible with light amounts
of accumulation expected through Monday morning. A strong weather
front will move into the interior Tuesday and Wednesday that
could produce 4 to 7 inches of snow. Winter weather advisories
for zones 219 and 221 have been added for the snow potential
moving in from the west on Tuesday. Snow will make its way into
the Middle Tanana valley late Tuesday afternoon and continue into
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong south winds moving
to the West Coast Monday may impact the area. There is some
potential for a minor ice push on the south facing coastal areas.
Another strong system Wednesday and Thursday could also push
broken ice onto south facing coastal areas and also a high surf
potential for Saint Lawrence Island.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-
Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ221.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.
Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.
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