FXAK69 PAFG 042354
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
254 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT 60 HOURS IN THE UPPER LEVELS BUT
THEY DIFFER GREATLY IN THE SHORT TERM AND PARTICULARLY AT THE
SURFACE. THE MODELS DIFFER BOTH IN WIND SPEED...DIRECTION AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM. SO...WILL CHOOSE A PATH
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT CLOSER TO THE NAM.

LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND
MOVE NORTH TO NEAR THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE WEST COAST ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SURFACE LOW WILL NORTH INTO THE BERING
SEA...BEING FORCED NORTHWARD BY THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

HIGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED BEFORE A
SHORT WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA THU
NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE IN WESTERN CANADA COMBINED WITH SURFACE TROUGH OVER
ZONES 225 AND 226 IS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE
ZONES WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THE ARCTIC COAST WILL WARM AS THE WARM AIR SURGES
NORTHWARD FROM THE BERING SEA LOW. WIND CHILLS WILL MODERATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER MANY OF THE WEST COAST ZONES
WILL PERSIST WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CF FEB 12


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