FXAK67 PAJK 061326
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
526 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES AN
INTENSIFYING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF PUSHES MAIN PRECIPITATION
BAND NORTHWARD INTO BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND. A DEFORMATION
ZONE IS FORMING WELL EAST OF KODIAK IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
SENDING MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREAS WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. SEVERAL STATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAVE REPORTED AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AS
OF THIS WRITING. WATER VAPOR LOOP HINTS A QUITE DRY AIR IS MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
PRETTY WEAK WITH BUILDING RIDGE.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS. USED
06Z RUN NAM TO MAINTAIN A CONTINUITY WITH THE INHERITED GRIDS FOR
THIS MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. AS THE FOG LAYER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE LIFTS WITH SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE THINNING
OUT OF CLOUDINESS AND SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH DECREASING MIDDLE
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN INTENSE LOW IN THE WESTERN
GULF WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH EASTERN GULF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS NORTHERN
OUTSIDE WATERS. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR NORTHERN MOST OUTSIDE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST TO INCLUDE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUTSIDE WATERS TONIGHT. WHILE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE REMAINS
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...CLOUDINESS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE INCOMING FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPING RAIN. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008/

LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINED FAIRLY HIGH ON THE LARGE
SCALE. STARTING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PANHANDLE...THEN LOW PRESS MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
N TOWARD KODIAK. A RIDGE BUILDING OVER SE AK ON TUE WITH ANOTHER
LOW IN THE W GULF WED. MODELS BROUGHT THE FRONT FOR SUN AND THE
MID WEEK FRONT IN A BIT FASTER AND STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS GRIDS
WITH GFS BEING THE FASTEST. COORDINATION WITH WFO PAFC...WENT WITH
A 50/50 BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDS WITH THE 05/12Z GFS. BROUGHT IN THE
HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST ON SUN BUT OVERALL THE PRECIP
PATTERN REMAINED CONSISTENT. INCREASED POPS ON MON TO CORRESPOND
TO A MORE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. KEPT
THE DRYING TREND ON TUE AND BROUGHT THE POPS IN A BIT FASTER OVER
PAYA ON WED WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL FORECAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.

$$

SJA




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