FXAK67 PAJK 181417 CCA
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
528 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2019
.SHORT TERM.../ Monday to Wednesday / The atmospheric river moving
onshore the northeast gulf coast Monday, will be weakening then will
be moved west towards Cape Suckling Tuesday afternoon as another
wave is moving north along the boundary is pulling it west.
Gusty southeast to south winds over the marine waters in the
eastern gulf Monday with some gustiness extending to some of the
channeled areas and exposed capes along the gulf. Wind gusts this
morning are 30 to 40 mph and I expect much of the winds through
the panhandle to weakening through the day.
High pressure will slowly build over British Columbia toward the
Yukon Territory Monday into Tuesday. The ridge and weakening
frontal boundary further west will help to clear out the clouds
across the panhandle while moving the remainder of the rain from
the panhandle and then west of Yakutat by late Tuesday.
Above normal temperatures for much of the panhandle area early
this week. Think there is a good potential for near record warmth
for some stations today and Tuesday. Expect highs in the 50s to
low 60s for the southern panhandle for the first part of the week.
The following section has information on the oncoming frontal band
from the Gulf of Alaska.
.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Sunday/
Did not make any big changes to the longer term forecast. Still
looks like a weakening occluded front will move onshore Wed
afternoon or evening, then dissipate over the inner channels Thu.
A stronger front will move NE into the area for Thu into the
weekend, with significant model differences on when it might come
Did nudge temps upward a little bit for Wed. Still concerned about
potential for mixing out to occur from at least the 925 mb level
downward Wed, which would result in somewhat higher temps than
current forecast has them. Could see some records fall during Wed.
A band of light precip is likely to move onshore Wed afternoon or
night as weakening occluded front moves in. This should diminish
Thu as the front dissipates over the inner channels.
With the differences on how far NE the stronger front gets, there
is potential for a much warmer/drier scenario for late week if the
more SW model solutions work out. Decided to keep a middle ground
POP forecast for Thu night into the weekend for the time being.
Overall, temps will remain above average through the period.
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 AM AKDT early this morning for AKZ025.
Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ018.
Strong Wind until 2 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031-052-053.
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