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FXAK67 PAJK 161233
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
433 AM AKDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...Surface analysis and satellite imagery show a
frontal band pushing E of CWA with second front approaching S
panhandle early this morning. This is resulting in precip
diminishing with some patchy fog being reported over S panhandle
attm. The break between these systems will be short lived and with
continued onshore flow light precip will continue between these
two systems so maintained periods of rain wording for the N
panhandle today with increased precip expected by this afternoon.
Low pressure S of the Aleutians will drift ENE into the W gulf
into Mon. Models solutions continue to differ with the next system
but are gradually coming into better agreement in a stronger sfc
low approaching the region Mon. This will enhance precip over the
S panhandle Mon with a period of increased winds over the SE gulf
and Clarence Strait Mon afternoon/evening. Inherited forecast
represented this well with biggest change to increase winds
slightly to account for a stronger frontal system impacting the
region Mon.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/As of 10 pm Saturday. Broad
upper low will be located over the eastern Gulf on Tuesday and
will slowly translate eastward into BC by Wednesday afternoon.
Cool air aloft and modest low level onshore flow on Tuesday will
lead to numerous showers across the Panhandle with the highest
rainfall amounts along west facing slopes. Northeast flow aloft
looks to develop Tuesday night into Wednesday over the northern
Panhandle. Will likely need to watch for an easterly wave or two
affecting this area. Additionally most guidance hangs back a
piece of the original upper low over the southeast Gulf and
onshore flow to the south of this feature may keep some showers
going over the southern Panhandle as well. All in all, kept temps
a bit on the cool side through Wednesday and also kept mention of
showers due to the uncertainty regarding any easterly waves and
the demise of the upper low.

For the late week period, still quite a bit of spread in the
ensembles over the eastern Gulf in regards to the strength of NPAC
ridging forecast to build after Wednesday. The trend has been for
a bit more in the way of ridging so it is looking more and more
like the summer solstice will be a dry and pleasant day for much
of the Panhandle. For now kept the trend of diminishing precip
potential and afternoon temps warming progressively each day into
the weekend.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ052.

&&

$$

BC/DEL

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