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FXPQ60 PGUM 210646
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
434 PM ChST Fri Jul 21 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite shows quite a bit of high clouds over the area while
radar shows only isolated showers nearby. A developing disturbance
is near Koror and a Special Weather Statement was issued for that
area. VAD gradient winds are east-southeast 12 to 15 kt. Ipan
Buoy shows combined seas around 4 feet, and Saipan and Ritidian
Buoys show 2 to 3 ft.

&&

.Discussion...
Refreshed wind and wave grids based on latest GFS Model. Isolated
thunderstorms are still expected mainly Sunday through Monday. High
cloudiness was more than expected today, but mid-levels will remain
relatively dry through Saturday. Models show increasing moisture
arriving from the southeast on Sunday along with light southeast
surface winds by Monday, turning south-to-variable at times about
Tuesday or Wednesday. Although a little drier weather is expected
Wednesday, the GFS model shows active weather to our southwest and
west, and we could have southwest winds later in the week.

&&

.Marine...
Introduced a small southwest swell on Tuesday for secondary wave
grids based on WW3 Guidance, which is itself based on developments
of the disturbance near Palau, and other things. There is already
southwest monsoon flow over Palau, and I want to account for a
possible first episode of southwest waves affecting our Marianas
shorelines this week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...Will be sent later.

&&

.Western Micronesia...Will be sent later.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Simpson/Ziobro
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