FXPQ60 PGUM 122003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
603 AM ChST Tue Nov 13 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...
Dry trade-wind weather conditions will linger over the region
through midweek, and combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will persist
through at least Friday.


Heavy showers associated with Invest 98C will remain well SE to
SW of the Marianas, with only isolated showers expected from this
tropical disturbance between Thursday and Saturday. Meanwhile, a
trade-wind disturbance tracking westward toward CNMI will have
a minimal effect on local weather conditions as the bulk of heavy
rain will remain well offshore or likely diminish before entering
the Marianas Friday evening. Thus, anticipate dry weather
conditions to follow after Saturday morning.

We will continue to monitor Invest 98C closely and provide
updates should this tropical disturbance bring scattered showers
over the next few days.


.Eastern Micronesia...
This morning Invest 98C could be found north of Pohnpei near 11N159E.
Models move it slowly west and still keep it weak. Low-level
convergence southeast of the disturbance will bring mostly cloudy
skies, isolated showers and thunderstorms to Pohnpei and Kosrae today
and tonight. This convergence will bring scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to Kosrae Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Models indicate a surface trough developing between Kosrae and
Majuro Thursday night. Low-level convergence east of the trough will
bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to Majuro Thursday
through Saturday.


.Western Micronesia...
The near-equatorial trough could be found south of Palau and Yap
this morning. Low-level convergence to the north of the trough
will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to Palau
today and to Yap through the morning. Drier air will filter into
Yap and keep showers isolated through the week. Convergence north
of the near-equatorial trough will weaken and shower activity
will gradually decrease at Palau with only isolated showers
expected the second half of the week.

Invest 98C, now north of Pohnpei will move westward and will be
located north of Chuuk Wednesday. Models keep 98C weak but it will
still cause scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at Chuuk
Wednesday through Thursday. Variable winds at Chuuk today will
gradually turn to the west tonight as 98C gets closer to this
location. West to southwest winds are expected Wednesday through
Thursday as 98C passes north of Chuuk. High pressure will build
into the area in the wake of 98C and keep showers to a minimum at
Chuuk Friday and Saturday.


Marianas Waters...None.


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