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FXPQ60 PGUM 270805
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
605 PM ChST Sat May 27 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Moderate trades and isolated showers are seen across the Marianas.
Seas are running 3-5 ft at the buoys and slowly building.

&&

.Discussion...
The only significant change has been to adjust mostly cloudy for the
next couple of days back to partly cloudy, and adjust maximum
temperatures accordingly. Winds will slowly fall during the coming
week, raising the slight possibility of island showers, but likely
not more than isolated.

&&

.Marine...
Buoys show slow building of combined seas, with Ipan now over 5 ft.
Six foot seas will be mainly in the eastern waters the next couple
of days, but should keep east swell at 5 to 6 feet along eastern
beaches--enough for a moderate rip risk. By Tuesday night, seas
should be at 3-4 ft and dropping, bringing the rip risk down to low.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Afternoon satellite imagery showed areas of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the eastern half of Micronesia. The
bulk of the showers has moved west of Pohnpei and Kosrea, so only
expect isolated showers and thunderstorms at these two locations
tonight. The satellite imagery shows that the same is true at Majuro;
that is, some of the showers have moved west of that location.
Satellite imagery, however, also shows patches of lower clouds with
embedded Cbs east of Majuro. Models show that this area will push
west and bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to
Majuro for most of the night.

Isolated showers will prevail across the eastern half of Micronesia
for the remainder of the forecast as models show the band of showers
breaking up by Sunday, although patches of showers will be present
keeping skies mostly cloudy at times.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Scatterometer data this morning depicted a surface trough southeast
of Yap. Satellite imagery showed an area of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms associated with the trough. Projecting the
leading edge of the showers westward indicates that they should
reach Palau just around midnight. Model data agrees with this and
keeps the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Palau
through Sunday. At Palau, models show a brief lull in activity
Sunday night with trade-wind convergence bringing in another round
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday through
Tuesday. Yap is at the northern edge of the activity with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorm expected there just for tonight.

Trade-wind convergence is producing an area of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms just south of Chuuk. These showers will
gradually push northward, expanding over Chuuk by midnight.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Middlebrooke/Ziobro
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