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ABIO10 PGTW 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/151000Z-151800ZDEC2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150752ZDEC2018//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/142051ZDEC2018//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 150600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT) WAS LOCATED NEAR
9.6N 85.3E, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 150900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 88.4E, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2S 91.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 91.0E, APPROXIMATELY 415
NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT AT 28C-30C.
ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 35 KNOT
WINDS OR MORE WITHIN 24 HOURS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 142100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.4S 57.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 57.7E, APPROXIMATELY 640
NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 150224Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK, FRAGMENTED BANDING WITH
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
MODERATELY FAVORABLE (BETWEEN 26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE
(BETWEEN 15-25 KNOTS) WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) TO
WARNING STATUS.//
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