AXNT20 KNHC 231038

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33/34W from 14N
southward, moving west around 15 kt. TPW imagery nicely indicates
the presence of the wave. The wave is enhancing scattered
moderate convection along the ITCZ from 03N-07N between 30W-40W.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to
05N18W to 04N19W. The ITCZ is from 04N19W to 03N31W, then
continues west of a tropical wave from 03N36W to 02N44W to
00N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves
section, numerous moderate scattered strong convection prevails
from 01N-06N between 20W-28W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N-07N between 06W-19W.


A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin with fair
weather, with a 1020 mb high over the Florida Panhandle.
Scatterometer data from Wednesday evening shows strong SE winds
covering the western Gulf and the south-central Gulf. Winds are
lighter in the NE Gulf.

High pressure extending into the eastern Gulf will maintain fresh
to strong SE winds across the western Gulf through Fri. Winds
will diminish and become more easterly across most of the basin
this weekend. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain
hazy skies in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche the next few


The monsoon trough passes through portions of northern Colombia,
Panama, Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. Scattered moderate
convection prevails over southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador,
western Nicaragua, and extreme northwestern Costa Rica. Over the
western Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is seen from
12N-16N between 78W-83W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is also over northern Colombia and NW Venezuela,
including Caribbean waters south of 10N between 75W-79W.
Cloudiness along with scattered showers and isolated tstorms
covers portions of the northern Caribbean from Hispaniola to the
south coast of Cuba. The ASCAT pass from Wednesday evening shows
strong E winds in the Gulf of Honduras.

Heavy rain is expected to continue today through Friday across
southern Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica,
enhanced by an area of low pressure along the west coast of
Nicaragua, mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the
eastern North Pacific. These rains could cause flash flooding and
mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. In addition, active
weather is likely to continue across the SW Caribbean through the
weekend. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
trade winds across most of the south central Caribbean and the
Gulf of Honduras through the weekend.


A southward moving cold front enters the discussion area near
32N54W and extends W to 27N72W to 28N77W, dissipating to 31N81W.
A surface trough is from 29N60W to 20N70W. An upper-level low is
near 24N68W. Scattered showers and tstorms are from 20N-26N
between 62W-71W. The remainder of the basin to the east of the
front and trough is covered by a high pressure ridge.

A cold front will sink southward across the northern waters
through Fri, then stall and dissipate along 25N Fri night through
Sun. High pressure north of the front will persist this weekend.
A broad inverted trough will persist N of Hispaniola through Fri.
NE winds near 30 kt will continue through Friday in the far E
Atlantic near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine