AXNT20 KNHC 232339

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


A 998 mb low pressure system located over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean near 26N 24W is producing gale-force-winds, mainly to the
west of the center. This system is producing numerous showers and
thunderstorms within 240 nmi east of the center. Another area of
associated thunderstorms is over the Canary Islands from 24N to
30N between 14W and 19W aided by diffluent flow aloft. This low is
expected to weaken as it moves southeastward and then eastward
during the next 24 hours. For more details, refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 8N13W and
continues southwestward to 4N20W and then to 1N32W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 1N to 6N between
13W and 22W.



Generally fair weather prevails across the Gulf of Mexico today
with only patches of clouds moving across the area. The clouds
are most organized over the north-central waters north of 27N
between 86W and 90W, where a few showers are occurring. A
stationary front is located along the coast of Texas and
northeastern Mexico, but this feature is not producing any
significant weather at the moment. Winds are mostly light to
moderate out of the east and southeast across the area, and seas
are up to 6 feet in some locations.

No significant changes are expected across the Gulf this weekend.
Another front is expected to move over the northwestern waters on
Sunday, but this feature is forecast to stall and weaken shortly


Fair conditions are also common across the Caribbean Sea today.
Visible satellite images show patches of low-level clouds across
the area moving within the trade wind flow. Slightly more
organized cloud streamers are moving across the Windward Islands,
where scattered showers are likely embedded. Although there is
some shower activity across the region, abundant dry air in the
mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere is expected to limit
significant thunderstorms from developing. Winds have dropped
below gale force near the coast of Colombia this morning, but they
are still around 30 kt there. Elsewhere, the trade winds are
generally in the 20-30 kt range, except lighter over the
northwestern waters. Seas are highest near the coast of Colombia,
up to 14 ft, and a large area of seas 8 ft and higher are
occurring east of about 82W.

Looking ahead to the weekend, winds and seas are expected to
gradually lessen as the high pressure system to the north of the
area weakens in place.


Besides for the low pressure system discussed in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section above, generally tranquil weather conditions are
occurring across the Atlantic. Strong surface high pressure
centered near Bermuda and dry air in the mid and upper-levels are
supporting fair weather and moderate to fresh winds across the
subtropical west and central Atlantic waters today. Over the deep
tropics, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring south
of 5N between 41W and 51W. This activity is associated with a
surface trough and a diffluent upper-level pattern.

The low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to
move eastward and weaken during the next 24 hours, but a cold
front is expected to move into the same region bringing another
round of strong winds. Little change is expected over the central
and western Atlantic waters during the next day or two as the
high pressure sysetm remains stationary and weakens.

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