AXNT20 KNHC 151104

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.


...Gale off the coast of Morocco...

A 14/2216 UTC ASCAT pass shows gale force winds off the coast of
Morocco north of 30N and east of 12W in the region called AGADIR.
According to the latest forecast from Meteo France, winds are
expected to subside below gale force in Agadir by 15/1200 UTC.
Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast that is
listed on the website:
metarea2 for more details.


The monsoon trough emerges off the west coast of Liberia near
07N11W and continues to 06N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to 03N24W. A surface trough is along 26/27W from 01N-09N. The
ITCZ continues west of the surface trough from 02N29W to 01S40W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 270 nm of the ITCZ
between the W coast of Africa and 25W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of
the ITCZ from 26W-40W.


At 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from near Naples Florida to the
western tip of Cuba to 16N88W. A line of moderate showers
accompanies the front over South Florida, but this line becomes a
broken line of light rain showers over the Gulf from 26N81W to
23.5N83W. A surface trough is analyzed at 0900 UTC from 31N84W to
26N85W. Scattered showers are over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
between the cold front and surface trough. Drier air is over the
western two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface observations
indicate that strong W-NW winds cover the western half of the

The cold front in the SE Gulf from Naples Florida to the western
tip of Cuba will move SE of the basin later today. Winds and seas
will continue to diminish today, with moderate westerly flow
expected across the Gulf by this evening, becoming light north
winds Sun and Mon. Easterly flow will set up across the northern
Gulf on Tue as weak low pressure develops over the SW Gulf.


As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the western tip of Cuba
near 22N85W to the Honduras/Guatemala border near 16N88W to
14N90W. Isolated to scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean
from 18N-23N between 78W-84W.

Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the SW Caribbean, while an
upper-level trough is east of the Lesser Antilles. In between, dry
air covers the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.

The cold front in the NW Caribbean will stall and slowly dissipate
through Mon. Strong north winds are forecast W of the front in the
Gulf of Honduras through early Sun. Fresh to strong trade winds
will prevail across the Caribbean E of 80W through early Sun, with
highest winds at night off the NW coast of Colombia. Large north
swell will reach the Leewards today and spread through the
Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean through Sun.


As of 0900 UTC, a cold front has emerged off the SE U.S. coast and
extends over the Atlantic Ocean from 32N80W to Daytona Beach
Florida, and continues to Naples Florida and to the western tip
of Cuba. A squall line with thunderstorms is analyzed to be about
30 or 40 nm east of the cold front from 28N-31N. Scattered
moderate convection is mostly northwest of a line extending from
28N79W to 30N76W to 32N73W. Moderate showers are west of the
squall line to the U.S. coast and extend inland over Florida,
Georgia and the Carolinas. Gale force winds are occurring north of
the forecast area, a few hundred nm east of the Carolinas.

To the east, a cold front passes through 32N30W to 27N41W, then
transitions to a stationary front at that point to 25N54W to
25N63W to 28N71W. Isolated to scattered showers are noted from
23N-33N between 36W-47W, but this activity may be more related to
upper-level diffluence in the area. A 1026 mb high is near 29N27W.

Strong SE to S winds are expected east of Florida and the Bahamas
today ahead of the cold front that extends from 32N80W to Daytona
Beach and across Florida to Naples. The cold front will reach
from 31N77W to the Straits of Florida this evening, from 31N72W
across the Bahamas to central Cuba on Sun, then stall and weaken
NW of the Bahamas Sun night and Mon.

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