AXNT20 KNHC 201111

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
611 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic continues to build
westward across the Caribbean, which will tighten the pressure
gradient over the coast of Colombia. This will result in gale-
force winds pulsing each night across this area and south-central
Caribbean through Sun. A gale is presently in effect until
20/1500 UTC within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia with seas to 12
ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under
AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 09N13W to 02N20W.
The ITCZ continues from this point to 03S30W to the coast of
South America near 04S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 00N-05N between 03W-20W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-05S between 21W-31W. Scattered
moderate convection is also from 05N-09N between 38W-58W.


At 20/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from SW Louisiana near 30N93W
to NW Mexico near 24N98W. A stationary front extends E from the
the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W to Daytona Beach Florida near
29N81W. Satellite imagery shows overcast stratus clouds and fog W
of the cold front and N of the stationary front. Radar imagery
shows scattered showers over N Florida. 10-20 kt southerly winds
are over most of the Gulf of Mexico E of the cold front.

The cold front will stall from SE Louisiana to off the coast of
Veracruz in the SW Gulf today, before lifting north as a warm
front through Thu, followed by moderate to fresh SE flow through
Fri. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast late Sat,
and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the western Bay of Campeche
by Sun evening.


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicate fresh
to strong easterly trade winds over much of the basin, with
strongest winds just north of Colombia. Scattered quick moving
showers are moving with the trades over the basin. Dry air in the
mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere continues to dominate the

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds over mainly the central Caribbean and north of
Honduras, with gales pulsing off Colombia most nights through Sun
night. N to NE swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the
Windward and Leeward Islands on Thu and continue through Sun.


A frontal system extends from the central Atlantic near 31N40W to
27N60W to 27N72W. A stationary front continues to 30N79W to N of
Daytona Florida near 30N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm N
of the front. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 26N32W
to 18N32W.

Over the W Atlantic, the portion of the front W of 75W will lift
N of the area as a warm front through early Wed, while the
portion east of 75W will dissipate over the SE waters Wed night.
Surface high pressure will become established across the region
on Thu and will prevail through the weekend.

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