AXNT20 KNHC 240005
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A new tropical wave has been added to the analysis along 30W from
01N-10N. Scattered moderate convection is north of 05N between
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from Hispaniola
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 66W and 78W.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of northern
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, curving to 11N18W and 10N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N20W to 10N28W, and resumes west of a tropical
wave at 10N32W to 10N42W to 08N50W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate
showers and thunderstorms extend from 10N-20N between 20W-47W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also over the west African
countries of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau as well as the waters from
03N-11N east of 19W. Isolated showers are seen near the coast of
NE Venezuela and Guyana as well as near Trinidad and over water
from 06N-11N between 58W-61W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front passes through 24N70W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through the Straits of Florida, to 28N91W. The front becomes warm
from 28N91W, and it curves northwestward and southwestward to a
1015 mb low pressure center that is near 27N95W in the NW Gulf of
Mexico. The front becomes stationary from the 1015 mb low
pressure center to 19N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are to the northwest and north of a line that runs
from NW Cuba, to 24N90W, to 22N92W, to the coast of Mexico along
92W, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
The 1015 mb low pressure center will lift N toward the coast of
Texas through Wednesday night, then ENE across the N central Gulf
waters through Thursday night, moving across the NE Gulf of Mexico
into north Florida by Friday. The developing low pressure center
will drag a new cold front across the Gulf waters Friday.
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia, westward along
09N/10N, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
11N southward between 69W and 75W over NW Venezuela and northern
Colombia. Isolated showers and storms are over the SE Caribbean
south of 12N between 77W and 81W.
An upper level E-to-W oriented trough extends from the Atlantic
Ocean 11N-to-22N between 44W and 53W area of cyclonic wind flow,
into the central Caribbean Sea, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, and then to a Belize upper level cyclonic
Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
Sea during the next several days, with the exception of light to
gentle winds in the NW Caribbean Sea. The winds are expected to
become fresh across the south central Caribbean Sea by Saturday
night. A tropical wave, extending from Hispaniola to the
Venezuela/Colombia border, is expected to become a trough tonight,
then finally weaken and dissipate by Thursday.
A stationary front passes through 32N57W to 23N72W, through the
Straits of Florida, into the NW Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
moderate convection is north of 25N between 51W-59W. Scattered
showers are also observed north of 28N between 65W and the SE
coast of the U.S. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft
are observed N of the front and E of the Bahamas.
A surface trough is along 21N52W 12N53W. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the area from 11N to 22N between 44W and 60W. An
upper level E-to-W oriented trough extends from the 11N-to-22N
area of cyclonic wind flow, into the central Caribbean Sea, into
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and then to a Belize upper
level cyclonic circulation center.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 21N
northward between Africa and 35W. A 1014 mb low pressure center
is near 34N25W.
The stationary front over and east of the Bahamas will weaken
tonight and on Wednesday, allowing the wind speeds and the sea
heights to decrease in the area. The pressure gradient between
high pressure over the NE United States and low pressure tracking
NE from the Gulf of Mexico across northern Florida will cause
winds and seas east of NE Florida to increase Thu and Fri. As the
low tracks toward the NE United States, the trailing cold front
will head SE from Florida Sat, then reach the NW Bahamas Sat
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