AXPZ20 KNHC 231002

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to a 1009 mb low pressure
near the coast of Nicaragua at 11.9N86.4W to 10N96W to 10N110W
to 08N119W. The ITCZ continues from 08N119W to 06N130W to beyond
07N140W. Numerous strong convection and tstms are across western
Nicaragua and from 09N to 13N E of 89W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 93W and
110W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to 09N
W of 121W.



The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja
California and lower pressure across the SW CONUS and northern
Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off the west
coast of Baja California. NW swell associated with stronger
winds off California continues to support 8-12 ft seas north of
Cabo San Lazaro. Peak seas of 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia will
subside later this morning while seas to 10 ft will persist
across the region through Fri morning before the swell decays.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will likely persist into
early Thu before diminishing.

Gulf of California: Strong to near gale force SW to W gap winds
continue over the Gulf of California between 27N and 30.5N with
seas to 9 ft between 29.5N and 30.5N. Fresh to near gale force
NW winds are N of 31N with seas to 5 ft. Wind speeds will
quickly diminish later this morning as the pressure gradient
relaxes over the region. Looking ahead, another strong to near
gale force SW gap wind event is expected Sat night through Sun
night ahead of a cold front approaching the region.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat and Sun. Seas will build to 8
ft within the strongest winds during the overnight and early
morning hours.


A low pressure system located inland Nicaragua near the coast
continue to support numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms
over western Nicaragua, southern Honduras and over E Pacific
waters from 09N to 13N E of 89W. This system is expected to
continue to meander near the coast of Central America during the
next few days, and gradual development is possible during the
weekend. Even if development does not occur, locally heavy rains
are likely over portions of Central America during the next few
days. These rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of mountainous terrain.

Otherwise, the monsoon trough will dominate the regional pattern
into early next week. Expect generally light to gentle winds
north of the monsoon trough and moderate to fresh S to SW winds
south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Early next
week, the global models suggest strong winds may develop south
of the trough, although this depends on how the low pressure
system described above evolves in the coming days. Seas
generally will run 8 ft or less into the weekend, then build
into early next week in response to the strengthening monsoon


Northwest swell over the waters north of 20N and east of 131W is
producing seas ranging from 8 to 13 ft across the region with
the highest seas N of 27N between 116W and 125W. This swell will
gradually decay by Fri with seas falling below 8 ft Fri night
into Sat.

A high pressure ridge extends from a 1033 mb high near 37N138W
east-southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is maintaining
fresh trades over the waters west of 133W with seas to 9 ft.

Elsewhere, a small area of 8 ft seas in SW swell persists
roughly from 06N to 13N between 95W and 111W. A pulse of cross-
equatorial SW swell will result in 8 ft seas developing today
over the waters generally south of the Equator between 100W and
120W. A second and stronger SW swell is expected early on Sun
through early next week.