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AXPZ20 KNHC 231510
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Apr 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 05N127W to 02N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either
side of a line from 09N115W to 04N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front near 32N120W is bridged by a surface
ridge from 23N116W to 12N94W. Gentle to moderate northwesterly
winds are observed west of southern Mexico, with 5-8 ft seas in
long period nw swell. A tightening pressure gradient is already
supporting a moderate to fresh NW winds north of 27N. Expect
fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8-12 ft from 29N to 32N
through Mon night. These conditions will spread southward on
Tuesday and reach as far south as 26N by Tuesday night. Strong
to near gale force northwesterly winds expected N of 29N late
Wed night through Fri night with combined seas of 11 to 16 ft.

Gulf of California: Variable winds around a weak surface low N
of 30N. Fresh to strong nocturnal sw winds are expected each
night across the gulf waters from 29.5N to 31N, with seas
building to about 5 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh northerly drainage flow
this morning will increase tonight to near gale force by Monday
morning, with seas building to 11 ft downstream of the gulf near
14.5N95W. The pressure gradient will quickly relax Monday with
winds less than 20 kt and seas less than 8 ft by Monday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds mostly onshore flow expected during the
day becoming offshore along the coasts at night. Combined seas
of 3 to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell forecast during the next
several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front from 30N121W to 23N138W will lose identity tonight
south of 30N. Expect NW swell to propagate eastward today, then
subside from the NW Monday through Wednesday. Strong NW winds
and seas to 12 ft are expected north of 29.5N east of 123W
tonight through early Wed, with similar conditions north of 28N
east of 126W Thursday.

$$
Mundell