AXPZ20 KNHC 161634 CCA
Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Sep 16 2019
Corrected Remainder of Area
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Kiko is centered near 17.3N 123.7 at 16/1500 UTC
moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed has diminished to 90 kt with gusts
to 110 kt. Kiko remains a small cyclone as it is being affected
by northeasterly shear. Numerous strong convection is occurring
within 60 nm of the center in the NE and SW quadrants. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and within 60 nm
of the center in the NW quadrant. A westward motion is expected
to continue through tonight. A west- southwestward motion is
expected Tue and Tue night, followed by a turn back to the west
on Wednesday. Gradual weakening is expected during the next
couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.
Low pressure of 1009 mb is near 11N107W. A tropical wave axis is
near 107W from 04N to 18N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
of moderate to strong intensity have increased during the morning
within 120 nm of the low in the W and NW quadrants. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 08N to
10N. Overnight satellite data depicted fresh to locally strong
winds in the SE and NW quadrants of this system. Conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
could form within the next two to three days. After mid week,
this system is likely to interact or merge with the disturbance
to its east described below, and further development after that
time is not anticipated. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see
the Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more
A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave near 97W. Low pressure of 1009 mb
is along the wave axis near 12N97W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within east of the wave from 11N to 15N. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within west and 60 nm
east of the wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form around the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.
This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
through 48 hours and a high chance during the next five days.
Please see the Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for
In addition to the tropical waves mention above:
A tropical wave with axis along 84W north of 04N was introduced
to the 12Z surface analysis. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
120 nm west and 60 nm east of the wave from 05N to 08N.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia to
11N86W to 11N93W to low pressure near 12N97W 1009 mb and to low
pressure near 11N107W 1009 mb. It resumes to the southwest of
Kiko near 14N125W and to low pressure near 13N134W 1008 mb and
to 11.5N140W. Aside from convection described above with
tropical waves and the lows, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring within 60 nm south of the monsoon
trough between 90W and 94W, also within 60 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 131W and 134W and from 07N to 10N west of
135W. moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the monsoon
trough between 94W and 97W, and within 60 nm south of the monsoon
trough between 101W and 105W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient west of Baja California supports
light to gentle northwest winds across these waters, while
gentle SE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of California per recent
satellite wind data. Farther south, fresh to locally strong
northerly winds were noted across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These
winds are expected to diminish by this evening. Overnight
altimeter data showed 3-5 ft seas over the waters between Cabo
San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes.
Moderate to fresh northwest winds will continue over the waters
north of Cabo San Lazaro through mid week. Looking ahead, a
tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of the
week off the coast of Mexico and could produce hazardous marine
conditions in the offshore waters. Local marine interests should
continue to closely monitor the latest NHC products.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A broad area of cloudiness along with scatterd showers and
thunderstorms is near and just west of Central America is
associated with the tropical wave near 84W. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next several days while
the wave moving westward or west-northwestward.
Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds continue south of the
monsoon trough, generally south of 10N, per overnight satellite
wind data. Seas across this region are likely in the 6-8 ft range
based on earlier altimeter data. Mainly fresh south to southwest
winds will continue or the next several days with seas to 8 ft
in mixed southwest swell and locally generated wind waves.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about Hurricane Kiko, as well as the potential for additional
tropical development later this week off the coast of Mexico.
A high pressure ridge over the northern waters will maintain
moderate NE winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 130W
through Tue as Kiko continues moving westward. Weak low pressure
near 13N134W is producing fresh to locally strong winds and 8-9
ft seas. This feature is expected to remain nearly stationary
through Tue, before it begins to drift eastward and become
absorbed into the circulation of Kiko later in the week.
Elsewhere, low pressure of 1009 mb near 11N107W, as described
above under Special Features, is producing fresh to locally
strong winds and wave heights of up to 10 ft, primarily in its SE
quadrant. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours. A broader area of waveheights
in the range of 8-10 ft is present from 07N to 11N between 94W
and 108W in association with enhanced southwest flow in the
vicinity of two tropical waves.