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AXPZ20 KNHC 230215
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0215 UTC Thu Mar 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough axis extends from 05N112W to 03N125W. The
intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 03N125W to
05N140W. No significant convection is present.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the pressure gradient combined with
nocturnal drainage flow will continue to support pulses of fresh
to strong northerly winds through Friday morning, then mainly
moderate thereafter. Seas will build to 8-11 ft with each pulse.

Elsewhere, a weakening cold front moving across Baja California
Norte will continue east and south across the Gulf of California
and the remainder of the peninsula through Thursday. High
pressure building behind the front will support fresh to strong
west flow over the northern Gulf of California tonight, and
northwest winds off the coast Baja California and the central and
southern Gulf of California through Friday. Northwest swell of
8-9 ft will follow the front as well off the coast of Baja
California, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by early Thursday.
Winds will diminish across the area as the gradient loosens
through Saturday, along with swell decaying below 8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure will prevail over the northwest Caribbean and Gulf
of Mexico, which will allow for the continuation of fresh to
strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through Friday
afternoon with seas to 8 ft. Winds will then pulse to fresh
thereafter.

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3-5 ft are
expected to continue the next several days, except in the Gulf of
Panama where they will pulse to fresh through the end of this
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extending into the offshore waters area from near
the Baja California Norte at 30N115W to 21N130W will continue
east through late Thursday. Seas in the 8-10 ft range behind this
front will propagate southeast while decaying through the next
24-48 hours. Another cold front is forecast to reach the
northwest forecast waters Friday morning, followed by a new round
of northwest swell. A third cold front may arrive by Sunday
evening.

Farther south, combined seas in the 8-10 ft range cover the
waters along and north of the ITCZ. Convection that had been
quite active and plentiful near the ITCZ has rapidly diminished
during the past several hours.

$$
LEWITSKY