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WTNT80 EGRR 171557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 108.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 11.8N 108.3W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 12.9N 44.1W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.1N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 14.9N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.8N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.7N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.8N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.8N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 20.6N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 22.7N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 25.0N 65.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 27.4N 64.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 30.1N 62.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 34.0N 60.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL STORM 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 98.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 13.0N 98.6W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 96.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 27.8N 96.0W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 163.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 15.3N 163.6W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.9N 164.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 74.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 30.6N 74.0W STRONG
00UTC 18.09.2019 31.1N 71.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 32.0N 69.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 33.4N 65.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 36.4N 61.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.09.2019 38.9N 58.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 41.4N 55.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 42.8N 50.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 42.3N 42.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 125.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 16.8N 125.2W MODERATE
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.2N 126.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.5N 127.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.4N 128.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 15.8N 129.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 16.5N 130.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 16.9N 131.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 17.3N 131.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 17.6N 131.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.2N 132.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.4N 133.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 15.3N 134.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 14.5N 136.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.7N 112.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.7N 112.7W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.5N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.3N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.7N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.2N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.5N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 17.2N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 17.3N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 18.1N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.6N 156.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.09.2019 14.9N 157.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 15.5N 157.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 17.0N 156.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.5N 62.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2019 13.9N 63.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171557