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WTNT80 EGRR 170418

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.08.2017

HURRICANE GERT ANALYSED POSITION : 39.4N 61.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.08.2017 39.4N 61.0W MODERATE
12UTC 17.08.2017 41.9N 52.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2017 45.9N 42.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.08.2017 49.0N 35.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2017 50.7N 30.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2017 51.9N 28.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2017 52.8N 28.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2017 51.9N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 13.6N 60.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.08.2017 13.6N 60.5W WEAK
00UTC 19.08.2017 13.8N 63.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2017 14.2N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2017 14.6N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2017 14.7N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2017 15.3N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2017 15.5N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2017 16.2N 86.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2017 16.3N 89.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2017 17.1N 91.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.0N 57.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.08.2017 18.0N 57.0W WEAK
00UTC 20.08.2017 18.9N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2017 19.2N 63.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2017 20.1N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2017 21.0N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2017 21.6N 70.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2017 22.0N 71.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2017 22.4N 72.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170418