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WTPN21 PGTW 280200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271321Z NOV 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
271330)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 164.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9N 166E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
WEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY,
RADAR IMAGERY, AND A 272207Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK CONVECTION. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM KWAJALEIN 105 NM TO THE EAST SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED FROM 19 KNOTS TO 11 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED
KWAJALEIN. THE UL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH VWS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL JUST TO THE NORTH HAS STIFLED
OUTFLOW, LEADING TO THE DIMINISHED AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. SSTS
REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED FURTHER OFF THEIR
PREDICTED INTENSITY, WITH MOST MAINTAINING MERELY AN AREA OF
MARGINALLY ENHANCED WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WAVELIKE FEATURE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A.
//
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