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WTPN21 PGTW 150530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140921Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 140930). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 135.3E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 135.5E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY MAINTAINS A LARGE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHOUT ANY ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. INVEST 95W REMAINS IN THE BROAD WIND FIELD
OF THE MONSOON GYRE WITH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (29 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
WIDE DISPARITY IN THE TIMING OF CONSOLIDATION . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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