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WTPN21 PGTW 102030 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 171.5E TO 21.9N 168.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101740Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3N 170.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3N 170.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 300NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION ABOVE A COHESIVE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101849Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC AND IN
A BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE STORM. INVEST 90S IS CURRENTLY
IN A REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-30C), AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK, KEEPING THE STORM WELL WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112000Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: REMOVED PREVIOUSLY CITED REFERENCE
A AND AMPLIFICATION.//