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WTPN21 PGTW 240530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230521Z MAR 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 230530)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.3N 146.1E TO 7.5N 139.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 145.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.3N 147.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY
475 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
232309Z AMSU METOP-A 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS 5-10KT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31
CELSIUS). HOWEVER, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS HINDERING SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250530Z.
//