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WTPN21 PGTW 072230
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S 176.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 177.2E, APPROXIMATELY
109 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 071853Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH
BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FLARING AND NOT WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. A 072146Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH PRIMARILY 20-25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
97P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE THAT 97P WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE TURNING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.9S 179.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.7S 179.2W, APPROXIMATELY
305 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. A 071855Z
89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH ITS
CENTER MOSTLY EXPOSED AND A POCKET OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. A
072004Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
PRIMARILY 20-25 KNOT WINDS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE,
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//