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WTNT41 KNHC 172039
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

There has not been any organized deep convection near the center of
Vicky in more than 12 hours as very strong vertical wind shear
continues to take a toll on the cyclone. Vicky has become a swirl
of low clouds and no longer meets the definition of a tropical
cyclone. Therefore, the system is being declared a remnant low and
this will be the last NHC advisory on Vicky. The Dvorak CI-number
from TAFB suggests that the intensity of the system has fallen to 25
kt, which is the basis for the advisory wind speed. Very strong
vertical wind shear associated with outflow from Hurricane Teddy is
expected to continue to cause the remnant low to weaken, and the
system is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure in 24
to 36 hours. The official forecast follows suit and calls for
dissipation by early Saturday.

Vicky is now moving west-southwestward or 250/10 kt. The remnant low
should remain on a west-southwestward heading while it is steered
by the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow over the next day or
so. The latest NHC track forecast is near the various consensus
aids and in the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical models.

This is the last NHC advisory on Vicky. Additional information on
the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 21.1N 39.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1800Z 19.9N 42.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown