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Weather Alert - Lafayette
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FGUS74 KSHV 211737
ESFSHV
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-
031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-
037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-
419-423-449-459-499-221136-


Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1137 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019


...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River basin of East Texas...


In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. For example...the Sabine River near Mineola
Texas flood stage is 14 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the
Sabine River will rise above 18.1 feet during the next 90 days.


Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
valid for February 21 - May 16 2019


Location FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

Lake Fork Creek
Quitman 4S 16 16.6 16.9 16.9 17.0 18.2 18.6 18.7 19.0 20.0
Sabine River
Mineola 4S 14 16.4 17.2 17.7 17.8 18.1 18.6 18.8 19.2 20.3
Gladewater 3WSW 26 27.1 29.4 30.8 32.2 33.1 34.5 35.3 35.8 37.0
Longview 25 23.0 24.2 25.1 26.8 29.1 30.0 31.4 32.7 33.9
Beckville 8NE 26 20.2 22.0 23.7 24.5 26.3 27.6 28.1 28.9 29.7
Logansport 28 24.9 26.3 27.8 29.1 30.6 31.3 31.9 33.3 35.7
Big Sandy Creek
Big Sandy 4NE 17 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.0 16.5 17.4
Rabbit Creek
Kilgore 10 11.3 11.7 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.8 14.6 16.0 16.7


Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Cherokee 280.4 280.4 280.4 280.4 280.5 280.5 280.7 281.1 281.6
Lk Martin 306.2 306.2 306.3 306.4 306.5 306.5 306.7 307.0 307.8
Lk Murvaul 265.8 265.9 266.2 266.4 266.5 266.7 267.0 267.6 269.2

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed
using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological
and stream flow data. These probabilities also account for the
current river flows and soil moisture conditions. By providing the
complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk
associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL: http:index.php?wfo=shv
(internet address URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.




FGUS74 KSHV 211735
ESFSHV
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-
031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-
037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-
419-423-449-459-499-221134-


Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1135 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019


...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Neches River basin of East Texas...


In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. For example...the Mud Creek near Jacksonville
Texas flood stage is 9 feet. There is a 50 percent change the
Mud Creek will rise above 8.5 feet during the next 90 days.


Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
valid for February 21 - May 16 2019


Location FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

Mud Creek
Jacksonville 7E 9 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.8 9.2 9.7 11.1
East Fork Angelina River
Cushing 4N 10 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.5 17.0
Angelina River
Alto 8E 29 22.0 26.4 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.7 29.2
Lufkin 8N 10 9.8 11.2 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.2
Attoyac Bayou
Chireno 3E 14 14.3 16.4 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.1 20.0 20.6
Ayish Bayou
San Augustine 10S 12 9.8 11.2 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.2
Neches River
Neches 4NE 12 12.5 13.4 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.3
Alto 8SW 16 9.8 11.2 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.6 18.7 19.0
Diboll 4S 12 12.9 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.6 15.1 15.9
Rockland 26 13.3 15.7 18.0 19.3 20.1 21.0 21.9 24.0 26.4


Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Palestine 345.8 346.0 346.2 346.3 346.4 346.6 346.7 346.9 347.1

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed
using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological
and stream flow data. These probabilities also account for the
current river flows and soil moisture conditions. By providing the
complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk
associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL: http:index.php?wfo=shv
(internet address URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.




FGUS84 KSHV 211559
RVSSHV
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-
031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-
037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-
419-423-449-459-499-221859-


Hydrologic Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
959 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

Flood 7 AM Daily forecasts at 7 AM
Location Stage Stage Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Dekalb 24 15.8 15.9 15.4 14.6 14.0 13.9
Fulton 27 9.1 10.2 10.8 10.6 9.8 8.2
Shreveport 30 20.2 20.5 21.3 22.1 22.8 22.9
Coushatta 31 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.7 26.9
Grand Ecore 33 23.8 23.1 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.4
Alexandria 32 23.4 23.1 23.3 23.9 24.5 24.9
Felsenthal 70 74.5 74.4 74.5 74.7 74.8 75.0
Monroe 40 37.0 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.5 M
Columbia 65 58.9 58.9 59.0 59.0 59.0 M
Caddo Lake 172 170.0 169.9 170.0 170.0 170.0 170.0
Glover 16 5.9 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.5


Flows...CFS for navigation through Red River Waterway


Shreveport 45993 47768 52045 57316 62392 63248
Coushatta 54231 53200 57194 63100 69376 72622
Grand Ecore 59224 57965 62295 68446 74645 77882



Little River summary of SE Oklahoma and SW Arkansas: Remain
near 1/2 bankfull through Tuesday


River forecasts include forecast rainfall for the next 24 hours.




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