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FGUS74 KMRX 162029

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
329 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

...Prolonged Period of Heavy Rains and Possible Flooding from
Late Tuesday through Thursday across much of east Tennessee,
southwest Virginia, and far Southwest North Carolina...

Showers and possibly thunderstorms will bring heavy rain to
southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina starting late
Tuesday afternoon. Periods of heavy rain will spread across the
rest of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia Tuesday night and
continue area-wide through Thursday.

The heaviest rainfall will likely fall across the Plateau, central
and southern sections of east Tennessee, and southwest North
Carolina where 5 to 7 inches are possible. Locally heavier amounts
possible. Across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee,
rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches are possible.

Some areas in east Tennessee have seen record breaking rainfall
over the past couple of days, especially around the Chattanooga
area. Since the ground is already saturated and streams are high,
any additional heavy rainfall will likely cause flash flooding.
Significant stream flooding, flooding of roadways, additional
ponding of low lying areas, and mud slides are possible. Major
river flooding is also a concern for mid to late next week.

There is still some uncertainty on the timing of storms and exact
amounts of rainfall over the next couple of days. We will continue
to monitor this situation and will pass along more information as
the system approaches. There is a possibility of Flood Watches
being issued for at least some parts of the area by mid week.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for
further details or updates.