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FGUS74 KHUN 162146
ESFHUN
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-TNC051-103-127-172300-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
346 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

...Flooding chances continue to increase for next week...

A wet pattern will set up across the Tennessee Valley for much of the
next week, with several rounds of heavy rainfall affecting Northern
Alabama and portions of Southern Middle Tennessee beginning late
Monday. Throughout the week ahead, a frontal boundary will stall
across the area, though there is some uncertainty as to exactly where
this feature will end up. The heaviest rainfall axis is expected to
be along this stalled frontal boundary, where anywhere between 6 to
9 inches of rainfall are forecast. Isolated higher amounts are
possible.

While rainfall is literally forecasted for every day next week, the
greatest potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will be from
late Tuesday through at least Thursday, if not lingering into
Friday. Given the wet ground conditions in place from recent
rainfall, much of this expected 6-9" of rainfall will immediately
convert to runoff. This will overwhelm the natural drainage
processes, leading to flash flooding potentially at the onset of the
heavy rain, and later in the week, widespread river flooding. Again,
while there is still some uncertainty in exactly where the front will
stall, nearly all of the river gages on the Tennessee River (and
those on tributaries that feed into the Tennessee River) will likely
reach flood stage at some point next week. The question will be how
many will reach Moderate Stage (or higher). Lingering flooding on the
Tennessee River will begin late next week, and will likely linger
into the following week as well.

Residents across Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee
should continue to monitor this unfolding weather situation over the
holiday weekend and stay tuned to further forecast updates from NWS
Huntsville!

For additional hydrologic information, visit our website at
weather.gov/huntsville.




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