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Weather Alert - Palo Pinto
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WGUS64 KFWD 202102
FFAFWD

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
402 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>120-129>133-141-210600-


Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Comanche-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano,
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper,
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Cisco, Eastland,
Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores,
Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Comanche, and De Leon
402 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of north central Texas and
northeast Texas, including the following areas, in north
central Texas, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Dallas, Denton,
Eastland, Erath, Fannin, Grayson, Hood, Hunt, Jack, Johnson,
Montague, Palo Pinto, Parker, Rockwall, Somervell, Stephens,
Tarrant, Wise, and Young. In northeast Texas, Delta, Hopkins,
and Lamar.

* From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon

* Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous
through the day Friday and continuing into Saturday. The
heaviest rainfall may occur late Friday into Friday night.

* Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches will be possible especially
north of I-20 toward the Red River through Saturday. Isolated
heavier amounts in excess of 5 inches can be expected.

* Soils will saturate quickly with periods of heavy rainfall
resulting in rapid runoff and the potential for flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rain which may lead to flash flooding. You should monitor the
latest forecasts from the National Weather Service and be
prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued for
your area.

&&

FGUS74 KFWD 201757
ESFFWD
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-210556-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1257 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Brazos River Basin in North Texas...

The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the
Brazos River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks.
This service is also available on the Internet.

In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: The Brazos River near South Bend has a
Flood stage of 21 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the South
Bend forecast point will rise above
9.4 feet during the next 90 days.

Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations
Valid 92018

Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Big Sandy Creek
Breckenridge 24.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.0 3.6 4.2 5.1 12.9
Upper Brazos River
South Bend 21.0 5.4 5.7 6.4 7.1 9.4 10.9 13.5 20.7 26.8
Palo Pinto 18.0 1.8 3.2 3.9 4.9 5.7 6.3 7.8 11.8 15.7
Dennis 25.0 2.0 2.6 3.5 5.3 6.5 7.3 9.0 13.5 17.5
Glen Rose 29.0 5.1 5.3 6.2 7.3 8.9 9.4 11.2 15.1 18.5
Aquilla 29.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.5 8.7 9.0 17.8
Paluxy River
Glen Rose 22.0 2.6 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.1 5.1 5.6 6.5 7.3
Nolan River
Blum 24.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.5 4.4
Lower Brazos River
Waco 27.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.6 4.5 5.6 6.5 14.3
Highbank 35.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.4 4.2 5.0 5.4 6.6 13.7
North Bosque River
Hico 24.0 5.3 5.3 6.7 7.2 7.9 9.1 9.4 10.1 11.2
Clifton 23.0 1.9 1.9 2.8 3.6 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.4
Valley Mills 36.0 4.8 4.8 6.0 6.6 7.1 7.7 8.1 9.0 10.9
Hog Creek
Crawford 14.0 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.3 4.6 7.9 10.6
Middle Bosque River
McGregor 20.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.6 7.4 18.9
Sabana River
De Leon 19.0 1.9 2.9 4.4 6.5 8.3 14.9 16.5 18.3 19.3
Leon River
De Leon 12.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.6 4.9 6.9 9.8
Hamilton 26.0 5.6 5.6 6.2 8.0 8.7 9.3 10.6 11.7 15.5
Gatesville 22.0 3.2 3.2 3.9 4.2 5.3 6.0 7.3 9.3 12.1
Belton 14.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.6
Cowhouse Creek
Pidcoke 20.0 2.6 3.8 6.1 6.7 7.8 9.0 10.2 12.6 15.4
Lampasas River
Kempner 18.0 1.5 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.3 5.0 6.3 8.7
Little River
Little River 30.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.7 5.4 9.3
Rockdale 30.0 4.7 4.8 5.1 7.1 10.4 12.7 16.1 21.8 28.1
Cameron 30.0 1.4 1.4 2.0 4.1 6.7 8.2 11.2 15.7 22.5
Navasota River
Groesbeck 7.0 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.9 4.4 5.6 9.3
Easterly 19.0 2.9 2.9 3.3 4.9 7.0 9.5 12.8 16.1 21.6

Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Lk Graham 1071.3 1071.3 1071.3 1071.5 1071.8 1072.2 1072.6
Hubbard Cr Lk 1177.3 1177.3 1177.3 1177.4 1177.4 1177.5 1177.8
Lk Leon 1369.5 1369.5 1369.5 1369.6 1369.7 1370.1 1370.4
20% 10%
--- ---
Lk Graham 1073.0 1074.3
Hubbard Cr Lk 1178.0 1180.2
Lk Leon 1370.9 1372.4

Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Lk Palo Pinto 863.2 863.3 863.3 863.5 863.7 864.2 864.7 866.0 866.7
Lk Pat Cleburne 730.9 730.9 730.9 731.0 731.0 731.1 731.4 731.7 733.2

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
Internet at: water.weather.govindex.php?wfo=fwd

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.




FGUS74 KFWD 201435
ESFFWD
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-210235-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
935 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Trinity River Basin in North Texas...

The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the
Trinity River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks.
This service is also available on the Internet.

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. Example: The West Fork of the Trinity River
near Jacksboro has a flood stage of 20 feet. There is a 50 percent
chance the Jacksboro forecast point will rise above
16.5 feet during the next 90 days.

Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations
Valid 092018

Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
West Fork Trinity River
Jacksboro 20.0 7.2 9.0 12.4 13.0 16.5 18.9 20.5 21.7 25.5
Boyd 16.0 8.6 13.1 14.1 14.6 16.5 18.1 18.6 19.0 21.9
Fort Worth 20.0 2.2 2.6 3.8 4.0 5.2 5.6 6.5 9.5 10.2
Grand Prairie 30.0 8.2 9.6 9.9 10.5 13.0 15.2 20.0 23.8 29.5
Big Sandy Creek
Bridgeport 12.0 3.9 4.9 5.9 7.1 8.2 9.6 10.7 11.1 12.9
Clear Fork Trinity River
Weatherford 15.0 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.8 6.4 7.9 15.1 15.4 15.4
Fort Worth 15.0 9.9 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.2 12.1 12.6 12.9 15.4
Denton Creek
Justin 10.0 4.3 4.6 5.1 5.3 6.3 7.3 9.7 10.8 13.2
Elm Fork Trinity River
Gainesville 22.0 5.2 7.1 7.6 8.6 11.9 12.9 13.6 14.9 16.1
Carrollton 8.0 5.3 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.7 7.2 8.9
Clear Creek
Sanger 25.0 6.2 6.8 7.3 8.5 10.7 15.3 18.0 18.8 26.4
Sister Grove Creek
Blue Ridge 24.0 11.8 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.7 17.6
East Fork Trinity River
Mckinney 16.0 4.6 6.4 6.9 7.5 7.9 9.1 9.7 12.3 18.5
Crandall 18.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.7 9.1
Chambers Creek
Rice 24.0 9.3 12.4 15.2 20.7 28.2 28.8 28.9 30.2 31.5
Trinity River
Dallas 30.0 22.6 25.2 26.3 27.0 30.0 32.0 32.8 35.8 38.9
Rosser 31.0 9.7 12.0 12.4 13.9 15.7 17.2 22.3 24.9 32.2
Trinidad 33.0 14.8 17.7 18.1 19.8 22.6 35.7 39.4 42.1 48.8
Long Lake 35.0 10.6 13.2 14.4 15.6 17.0 30.8 35.9 44.0 46.8

Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Lk Worth 597.0 593.9 594.3 594.8 595.3 595.9 596.0 596.6 597.2 597.6
Lk Arlington 549.7 550.5 550.9 551.2 551.5 552.4 552.9 554.0 555.4

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
Internet at: water.weather.govindex.php?wfo=fwd

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.




FGUS74 KFWD 201522
ESFFWD
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-210322-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1022 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River Basin in North Texas...

The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the
Sabine River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks.
This service is also available on the Internet.

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. Example: The South Fork of the Sabine River
near Quinlan has a flood stage of 15 feet. There is a 50 percent
chance the Quinlan forecast point will rise above
16.6 feet during the next 90 days.

Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations
Valid 092018

Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
South Fork Sabine River
Quinlan 15.0 5.2 13.8 15.8 16.4 16.6 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.2
Cowleech Fork Sabine River
Greenville 14.0 4.7 6.3 14.9 16.0 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.3

Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Lk Tawakoni 435.2 435.2 435.2 435.4 435.6 436.0 436.8 438.1 439.0

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
Internet at: water.weather.govindex.php?wfo=fwd

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.





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