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Weather Alert - Smith
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FGUS84 KSHV 221507
RVSSHV
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-
031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-
037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-
419-423-449-459-499-231807-


Hydrologic Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Flood 7 AM Daily forecasts at 7 AM
Location Stage Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Dekalb 24 9.5 9.7 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.4
Fulton 27 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7
Shreveport 30 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4
Coushatta 31 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8
Grand Ecore 33 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.4
Alexandria 32 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.3 20.3
Felsenthal 70 65.2 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3
Monroe 40 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5
Columbia 65 52.2 52.2 52.2 52.2 52.2 52.2
Caddo Lake 172 168.8 168.8 168.8 168.8 168.8 168.8
Glover 16 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.5


Flows...CFS for navigation through Red River Waterway


Shreveport 5157 6119 7345 7858 7558 7138
Coushatta 6000 6609 7820 8866 8984 8593
Grand Ecore 6133 6569 7571 8720 9083 8805



Little River summary of SE Oklahoma and SW Arkansas: Remain
near 1/4 bankfull through Wednesday.


All forecasts include forecast rainfall through 6 AM tonight.




FGUS74 KSHV 221309
ESFSHV
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-
031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-
037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-
419-423-449-459-499-230709-


Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
809 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018


...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River basin of East Texas...


In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. For example...the Sabine River near Mineola
Texas flood stage is 14 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the
Sabine River will rise above 7.5 feet during the next 90 days.


Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
valid for June 21 - September 20 2018


Location FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

Lake Fork Creek
Quitman 4S 16 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.5 5.5
Sabine River
Mineola 4S 14 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.5 8.3 9.1 11.3 14.7
Gladewater 3WSW 26 6.3 6.8 7.2 8.0 8.5 9.5 10.4 13.4 16.2
Longview 25 4.2 5.1 5.5 6.4 7.6 8.7 9.8 13.0 15.8
Beckville 8NE 26 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.8 10.4 11.1 11.7 13.9 17.7
Logansport 28 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.5 22.0
Big Sandy Creek
Big Sandy 4NE 17 4.1 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.4 7.1 7.6 9.1 10.1
Rabbit Creek
Kilgore 10 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.2 7.2


Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Cherokee 279.4 279.4 279.4 279.5 279.5 279.6 279.6 279.6 280.1
Lk Martin 305.1 305.1 305.1 305.1 305.1 305.2 305.2 305.3 305.6
Lk Murvaul 264.7 264.7 264.7 264.8 264.8 264.9 264.9 265.1 265.6

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed
using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological
and stream flow data. These probabilities also account for the
current river flows and soil moisture conditions. By providing the
complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk
associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL: http:index.php?wfo=shv
(internet address URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.




FGUS84 KSHV 211550
RVSSHV
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-
031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-
037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-
419-423-449-459-499-221850-


Hydrologic Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1050 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Flood 7 AM Daily forecasts at 7 AM
Location Stage Stage Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Dekalb 24 9.5 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.6
Fulton 27 -0.9 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.0
Shreveport 30 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3
Coushatta 31 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Grand Ecore 33 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.3
Alexandria 32 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3
Felsenthal 70 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3
Monroe 40 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4
Columbia 65 52.2 52.2 52.2 52.2 52.2 52.2
Caddo Lake 172 168.8 168.8 168.8 168.7 168.7 168.7
Glover 16 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6


Flows...CFS for navigation through Red River Waterway


Shreveport 4793 5141 6014 6528 6433 6003
Coushatta 5873 6007 6580 7353 7572 7317
Grand Ecore 6085 6161 6559 7276 7641 7497



Little River summary of SE Oklahoma and SW Arkansas: Remain
near 1/4 bankfull through Monday.


All forecasts include forecast rainfall through 6 AM tonight.





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