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FGUS74 KSHV 171820
ESFSHV
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-
031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-
037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-
419-423-449-459-499-181220-


Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1220 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018


...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River basin of East Texas...


In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. For example...the Sabine River near Mineola
Texas flood stage is 14 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the
Sabine River will rise above 16.2 feet during the next 90 days.


Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
valid for February 15 - May 17 2018


Location FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

Lake Fork Creek
Quitman 4S 16 5.9 7.2 8.1 15.9 16.7 16.8 18.4 18.8 19.6
Sabine River
Mineola 4S 14 10.9 14.1 15.1 15.4 16.2 17.0 17.9 18.3 19.4
Gladewater 3WSW 26 14.9 18.7 20.0 23.2 25.5 28.7 33.0 34.9 36.3
Longview 25 15.5 18.3 20.1 22.3 24.3 26.4 28.0 31.1 33.3
Beckville 8NE 26 15.1 17.4 19.1 21.3 23.7 24.9 27.3 28.4 29.1
Logansport 28 25.3 25.7 26.7 27.2 27.9 28.7 30.4 32.1 34.8
Big Sandy Creek
Big Sandy 4NE 17 8.9 10.3 10.8 11.5 12.0 13.0 13.3 14.7 16.3
Rabbit Creek
Kilgore 10 10.9 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 14.1 15.0 16.0 16.6


Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Cherokee 280.3 280.3 280.3 280.4 280.4 280.4 280.7 281.0 281.5
Lk Martin 305.1 306.0 306.1 306.1 306.2 306.3 306.4 306.7 307.6
Lk Murvaul 265.7 265.8 266.0 266.1 266.3 266.4 266.8 267.3 268.9

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed
using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological
and stream flow data. These probabilities also account for the
current river flows and soil moisture conditions. By providing the
complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk
associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL: http:index.php?wfo=shv
(internet address URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.




FGUS74 KSHV 171818
ESFSHV
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-
031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-
037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-
419-423-449-459-499-181218-


Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1218 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018


...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Neches River basin of East Texas...


In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. For example...the Mud Creek near Jacksonville
Texas flood stage is 9 feet. There is a 50 percent change the
Mud Creek will rise above 8.3 feet during the next 90 days.


Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
valid for February 15 - May 17 2018


Location FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

Mud Creek
Jacksonville 7E 9 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.4 9.1 10.2 11.1
East Fork Angelina River
Cushing 4N 10 13.4 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.4 16.3
Angelina River
Alto 8E 29 19.6 23.7 24.5 26.1 26.9 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.6
Lufkin 8N 10 8.9 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.3 12.9 13.6
Attoyac Bayou
Chireno 3E 14 13.3 13.7 16.1 16.8 17.9 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.7
Ayish Bayou
San Augustine 10S 12 8.9 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.3 12.9 13.6
Neches River
Neches 4NE 12 10.1 11.4 12.3 12.7 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.5 15.3
Alto 8SW 16 8.9 9.9 14.6 15.4 15.9 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.8
Diboll 4S 12 10.9 12.0 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.5
Rockland 26 9.2 11.1 12.5 13.5 14.8 15.6 16.7 17.9 21.4


Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Palestine 345.4 345.6 345.6 345.7 345.8 346.0 346.1 346.1 346.3

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed
using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological
and stream flow data. These probabilities also account for the
current river flows and soil moisture conditions. By providing the
complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk
associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL: http:index.php?wfo=shv
(internet address URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.




VIII.
FGUS84 KSHV 171558
RVSSHV
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-
031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-
037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-
419-423-449-459-499-181858-


Hydrologic Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
958 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Flood 7 AM Daily forecasts at 7 AM
Location Stage Stage Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Dekalb 24 10.1 10.3 10.7 10.0 10.0 9.6
Fulton 27 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.1
Shreveport 30 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.7
Coushatta 31 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.9
Grand Ecore 33 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.6 20.5
Alexandria 32 20.5 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4
Felsenthal 70 M 67.9 67.8 67.6 67.5 67.3
Monroe 40 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5
Columbia 65 52.1 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0
Caddo Lake 172 169.9 169.9 169.9 169.9 169.9 169.9
Glover 16 3.9 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.1


Flows...CFS for navigation through Red River Waterway


Shreveport 16319 15811 14925 14084 13272 12739
Coushatta 17318 17276 16669 15864 15049 14423
Grand Ecore 18716 18556 17904 16977 16034 15222



Little River summary of SE Oklahoma and SW Arkansas: Low water
through Monday then rises due to anticipated rainfall through the week.


All forecasts include forecast rainfall through 6 AM tonight.




25



Atlantic
Tropical Watch