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ACUS01 KWNS 120542 SWODY1 SPC AC 120541 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across the central Gulf Coast states and south Florida on Monday. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... Weak mid-level height rises will be noted across the Gulf states during the first half of the period, with perhaps some weak falls during the latter half. In the absence of large-scale forcing for ascent, warm advection along a pseudo-stationary synoptic front should prove responsible for bouts of showers/thunderstorms. Southwesterly LLJ early in the period will relax before increasing and veering to westerly after midnight. Given the orientation of the front, from the coastal plain of Texas into northern Alabama, low-level convergence is not expected to be particularly strong. For this reason it appears convection will be correlated with the wind shift. Forecast soundings do not appear sufficiently unstable to support organized severe thunderstorms. ...CAROLINA COAST/SOUTH FLORIDA... Low-level moisture off the Carolina coast may advance inland early in the period such that sufficient buoyancy develops for deeper convection. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have recently developed off the Florida Atlantic coast and this activity may continue to develop/move northward toward the Carolinas by sunrise. Southern extent of LLJ will translate off the NC coast by 18z and this may aid northward advance of aforementioned convection inland before winds veer and main confluence zone shifts offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along this confluence zone across south Florida, aided in part by some boundary layer heating. ..Darrow/Picca.. 12/12/2016 $$