ACUS01 KWNS 050540
SWODY1
SPC AC 050538
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2012
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A CLOSED CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EWD FROM MO TOWARD THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS WITHIN THE SRN FRINGES OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING
THE NERN STATES. A LOW-AMPLITUDE...MODERATE FLOW REGIME WILL BE
FOUND SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES OVER THE SRN STATES...WHILE A SFC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN CONUS.
...SERN STATES...
REDUCTION IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/FL...AND A SEGMENT OF
THE FRONT MOVES SWD OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE
PREDOMINANTLY WEAK DESTABILIZATION THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR.
AND...WITH SUFFICIENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. AS SFC WINDS VEER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF N FL TOWARD CNTRL/ERN SC...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND
PROFILES FEATURING MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTH COULD BRIEFLY
SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ALONG WITH A RISK FOR GUSTY
WINDS. HOWEVER...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE LACK OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO LIMIT INSOLATION AND BUOYANCY
WILL KEEP THE SVR THREAT SUFFICIENTLY LOW SUCH THAT SVR
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT INCLUDED.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA AND THE FL
KEYS...COMPARATIVELY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. A
DENSER MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OWING TO DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NWRN CARIBBEAN MAY
INHIBIT INSOLATION AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. REGARDLESS...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WEAKER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH SWD
DISPLACEMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA AND FL
KEYS.
...CNTRL/SRN TX...
MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER WEAK MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INFLUX OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC...COUPLED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY ROOTED ATOP A LAYER OF COOL AIR EXTENDING FROM THE SFC
TO AROUND 700-750 MB...MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MUCAPE VALUES BELOW
500 J/KG AND ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTH SHOULD LARGELY
MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR HAIL.
..COHEN/GOSS.. 02/05/2012
