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ACUS01 KWNS 120542


SPC AC 120541

Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1141 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z



Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across the central

Gulf Coast states and south Florida on Monday.


Weak mid-level height rises will be noted across the Gulf states

during the first half of the period, with perhaps some weak falls

during the latter half.  In the absence of large-scale forcing for

ascent, warm advection along a pseudo-stationary synoptic front

should prove responsible for bouts of showers/thunderstorms. 

Southwesterly LLJ early in the period will relax before increasing

and veering to westerly after midnight.  Given the orientation of

the front, from the coastal plain of Texas into northern Alabama,

low-level convergence is not expected to be particularly strong. 

For this reason it appears convection will be correlated with the

wind shift.  Forecast soundings do not appear sufficiently unstable

to support organized severe thunderstorms.


Low-level moisture off the Carolina coast may advance inland early

in the period such that sufficient buoyancy develops for deeper

convection.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms have recently

developed off the Florida Atlantic coast and this activity may

continue to develop/move northward toward the Carolinas by sunrise. 

Southern extent of LLJ will translate off the NC coast by 18z and

this may aid northward advance of aforementioned convection inland

before winds veer and main confluence zone shifts offshore. 

Isolated thunderstorms may develop along this confluence zone across

south Florida, aided in part by some boundary layer heating.

..Darrow/Picca.. 12/12/2016