Location:

ACUS02 KWNS 140543

SWODY2

SPC AC 140542



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1142 PM CST SAT MAR 13 2010



VALID 151200Z - 161200Z



...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...



...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD

NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS

FROM THE MID LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE BRITISH

COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM FLOW

APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NORTH NORTHWESTERLY

COMPONENT IN A COUPLE OF STRONGER BELTS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND

THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS.  AND CLOSED LOWS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM STREAM

ARE PROGGED TO BEGIN ACCELERATING EASTWARD...INCLUDING THE

LARGER/MORE PROMINENT CIRCULATION AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC

SEABOARD.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE OTHER SMALLER BUT VIGOROUS

CLOSED LOW MAY WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH THE LOWER

RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY...AFTER PERHAPS CONTINUING TO DIG

FROM NEAR EL PASO INTO AREAS WEST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND DURING THE

DAY MONDAY.



WHILE RELATIVELY DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS

MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE

WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLANTIC UPPER LOW...GUIDANCE REMAINS

SUGGESTIVE THAT A WEAK NARROW RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR UP

THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL

ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEASTERN

MEXICO...AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND COOLING

ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE REGION.



...TEXAS BIG BEND REGION INTO PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF REACHING SEVERE

LEVELS STILL SEEMS LIMITED AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER

TERRAIN OF MEXICO SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM DO

INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...IN THE PRESENCE OF

FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE DAVIS/GLASS MOUNTAINS AND EDWARDS

PLATEAU PRIOR TO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FRONTAL COOLING/DRYING.  IF

THIS OCCURS...ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM AROUND

SANDERSON/DEL RIO.  FLOW FIELDS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EASTWARD OR

SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL/DEEP SOUTH

TEXAS...WHERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN A MORE STABLE

ENVIRONMENT.



..KERR.. 03/14/2010