Location:

ACUS02 KWNS 061723

SWODY2

SPC AC 061721



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1221 PM CDT SAT SEP 06 2008



VALID 071200Z - 081200Z



...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...



...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS...

ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES AS AN

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION

SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE

ACROSS OK WITH A PRONOUNCED EAST TO WEST MOIST AXIS LOCATED NORTH OF

THE BOUNDARY IN NRN OK AND FAR SRN KS WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN

THE MID 60S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO

DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST AXIS BY MIDDAY BUT A CAPPING INVERSION

SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. IN

FACT...THIS CAP COULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE

INSTABILITY AXIS INTO THE EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND GFS.

THE NAMKF IS THE OUTLIER...INITIATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM

NRN OK INTO SW MO BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...THE

INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND

DAMAGE THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT

ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY

SHOULD BE TIED TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT EXPANDING THE CONVECTION NWD ACROSS NRN KS LATE IN THE

PERIOD. A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE

ELEVATED STORMS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR

EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.



..BROYLES.. 09/06/2008