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ACUS02 KWNS 120633


SPC AC 120632

Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1232 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z



Showers and scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of the

Southeast on Tuesday.


A broad belt of fast cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the

U.S. this period, south of a polar vortex moving slowly ewd across

central Canada.  At the surface, a cold front stretching from SC

westward across the Gulf coastal states to TX will linger in place

over the Southeast, but will advance gradually southward into the

western Gulf as cold high pressure expands southeastward across the

southern Plains and Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through the end of

the period.


Very weak short-wave troughing embedded within the broader cyclonic

flow aloft is forecast to shift east out of Texas and across the

Gulf Coast region with time, inducing weak low pressure along the

stalled surface front extending w-e across the Gulf Coast states. 

As a result, showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast in the

vicinity of the frontal zone, likely increasing in coverage with

time through the evening and overnight hours.  

Across this region, shear sufficient for organized storms --

particularly ahead of any weak frontal wave where more

southerly/less veered boundary-layer flow would reside -- is

expected.  However, it appears at this time that degree of CAPE will

likely be a limiting factor for any appreciable severe risk,

remaining at or below 500 J/kg area-wide along with weak lapse

rates.  At this time, a marginal/5% risk area will not be

introduced, given the thermodynamic concerns and the largely

veered/westerly flow in the lower and mid troposphere.  However,

very limited potential for a stronger storm or two over coastal

areas of the central Gulf Coast region could eventually require low

severe probabilities.

..Goss.. 12/12/2016