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ACUS02 KWNS 140543
SWODY2
SPC AC 140542
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST SAT MAR 13 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
FROM THE MID LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM FLOW
APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NORTH NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT IN A COUPLE OF STRONGER BELTS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS. AND CLOSED LOWS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM STREAM
ARE PROGGED TO BEGIN ACCELERATING EASTWARD...INCLUDING THE
LARGER/MORE PROMINENT CIRCULATION AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE OTHER SMALLER BUT VIGOROUS
CLOSED LOW MAY WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY...AFTER PERHAPS CONTINUING TO DIG
FROM NEAR EL PASO INTO AREAS WEST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND DURING THE
DAY MONDAY.
WHILE RELATIVELY DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLANTIC UPPER LOW...GUIDANCE REMAINS
SUGGESTIVE THAT A WEAK NARROW RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND COOLING
ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
...TEXAS BIG BEND REGION INTO PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS STILL SEEMS LIMITED AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MEXICO SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM DO
INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...IN THE PRESENCE OF
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE DAVIS/GLASS MOUNTAINS AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU PRIOR TO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FRONTAL COOLING/DRYING. IF
THIS OCCURS...ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM AROUND
SANDERSON/DEL RIO. FLOW FIELDS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL/DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...WHERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT.
..KERR.. 03/14/2010