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ACUS02 KWNS 120633 SWODY2 SPC AC 120632 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of the Southeast on Tuesday. ...SYNOPSIS... A broad belt of fast cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. this period, south of a polar vortex moving slowly ewd across central Canada. At the surface, a cold front stretching from SC westward across the Gulf coastal states to TX will linger in place over the Southeast, but will advance gradually southward into the western Gulf as cold high pressure expands southeastward across the southern Plains and Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through the end of the period. ...CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... Very weak short-wave troughing embedded within the broader cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to shift east out of Texas and across the Gulf Coast region with time, inducing weak low pressure along the stalled surface front extending w-e across the Gulf Coast states. As a result, showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity of the frontal zone, likely increasing in coverage with time through the evening and overnight hours. Across this region, shear sufficient for organized storms -- particularly ahead of any weak frontal wave where more southerly/less veered boundary-layer flow would reside -- is expected. However, it appears at this time that degree of CAPE will likely be a limiting factor for any appreciable severe risk, remaining at or below 500 J/kg area-wide along with weak lapse rates. At this time, a marginal/5% risk area will not be introduced, given the thermodynamic concerns and the largely veered/westerly flow in the lower and mid troposphere. However, very limited potential for a stronger storm or two over coastal areas of the central Gulf Coast region could eventually require low severe probabilities. ..Goss.. 12/12/2016 $$