Location:

ACUS03 KWNS 150700

SWODY3

SPC AC 150659



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0159 AM CDT MON MAR 15 2010



VALID 171200Z - 181200Z



...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL TURN EAST OF

THE CASCADES AND CANADIAN ROCKIES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  A

LEAD IMPULSE WITHIN THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS INTO AND

THROUGH THE CREST OF A SHARP UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN

PRAIRIES...WHILE A TRAILING IMPULSE DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO DIG INTO

THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...IN RESPONSE AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM

FLOW.  AT THE SAME TIME...DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLATTENING WESTERN

RIDGE...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING

SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE

SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE U.S....AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.



...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE

QUESTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL

AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  STRONGER HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE

BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW...COUPLED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED

WITH AN EMBEDDED DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO

SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...CAPE SHOULD BE VERY WEAK DUE

TO LOW MOISTURE VALUES...AND THE RISK FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF REACHING

SEVERE CRITERIA APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.



...WESTERN STATES...

DESPITE LOW MOISTURE LEVELS...ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING

ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT

BASIN.  MID- LEVEL COOLING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE INLAND

ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL DAYTIME BOUNDARY

LAYER HEATING...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION.



..KERR.. 03/15/2010